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When the Chinese car market ushered in the second “blowout†in 2006, the signs of recovery in the truck market were also more pronounced. As of November 2006, the cumulative production and sales of trucks in China have reached 151,000 and 1.835 million vehicles (including non-integrated trucks and tractor-trailers, the same below), which is 8.11 more than the 2005 annual production and sales volume respectively. Millions of vehicles and 65,600 vehicles, an increase of 14.78% and 14.20%.
However, it cannot be denied that the market share of trucks has been reduced from the previous three-points to one-fourth of the current total market. Industry experts pointed out that the change in this proportion shows that China’s auto market has started to be the same as that of the developed countries' auto market, and the proportion of the truck market in the auto industry tends to be reasonable.
Throughout 2006, the truck market has gradually entered a more mature stage of development after adjustments in market demand, energy prices, and industrial structure. The series of changes triggered by this is its best proof. In the new year, the favorable macroeconomic environment and strict road traffic regulations have provided conditions for the sound development of the medium and heavy truck market.
Chassis and semitrailer tractors pull the heavy truck market to pick up
After experiencing a long period of adjustment in 2005, the heavy truck market finally reached an inflection point in May 2006. In the second half of 2006, monthly production and sales of heavy trucks recovered more than 50%. Statistics show that as of November 2006, the cumulative production and sales volume of heavy trucks have reached 276,200 and 219,900, respectively, an increase of 31.04% and 29.48% year-on-year.
Behind the rapid recovery of the heavy truck market, its internal product structure is undergoing a significant change: due to the continuous increase of various types of engineering construction projects across the country and the increasingly sophisticated social division of labor, the demand for heavy-duty special-purpose vehicle modification market continues to heat up, heavy truck second class The market share of the chassis can be rapidly increased. At the same time, due to the improvement of China's highway network facilities and the expansion of the container transportation industry, the market demand for semi-trailer tractors has increased substantially, and is mainly concentrated on the demand for large-tonnage models, 2006. In the first 11 months, the cumulative production and sales volume of semi-trailer tractors both increased by more than 58 percentage points year-on-year. Together, these two models are the driving force behind the overall growth of the truck market.
Bipolar acceleration
In 2006, the increase in market share of heavy trucks and light trucks and the shrinking market share of China Cards became even more pronounced. The market demand for large-tonnage products also led to heavy truck heavy trucks.
As a result of the "weight-loading" policy, oil price increases and other factors, as of November 2006, the production and sales of the heavy-duty truck market had dropped by 15.93% and 17.46%, respectively. Among them, 14 to 19 tons of heavy trucks (quasi heavy trucks) that once dominated the traditional truck market fell significantly, while 19 to 32 tons of heavy trucks were hot sellers, and the market demand shifted to heavy tonnage heavy trucks.
In terms of light trucks, light trucks with heavy loads and light weight have become the main force in the short-haul and small-scale transportation market, and the light truck market continues to maintain stable development. Statistics show that in the first 11 months of 2006, light trucks produced and sold 863,200 units and 860,100 units, an increase of 10.81% and 10.93% respectively. From the sales structure of light truck products, light truck sales are mainly concentrated on low-tonnage vehicles, and sales of 4.5 to 6 tons of medium-sized light trucks are also growing rapidly.
Under the influence of macroeconomic policies, although the sales and sales figures of the China Card market in the first 11 months of 2006 were basically the same as in 2005, with production and sales of 181,600 units and 180,500 units respectively, sales accounted for only 11.4% of the overall sales of trucks. Market share has further shrunk. With the implementation of weight-based toll collection in various parts of the country, in the long-distance logistics market, China Card has gradually been replaced by heavy-duty trucks with stronger bearing capacity and power; at the same time, due to the increase in oil prices, transportation management, and other expenses, China Card is in the second and third. The shares in the market have also been replaced by light trucks with large tonnage and high allocation.
"High-end truck" popular
The “high-end truck†mentioned here refers to a domestic high-end truck. Perhaps it is not high-grade compared to imported high-end trucks, but it has the advantage that imported high-end trucks do not have the same advantages: while paying attention to safety, comfort, and beauty. Domestic high-end trucks are also pursuing more economical and durable.
The gentrification of trucks in 2006 has become a trend and has concentrated on both ends of the truck market - the heavy truck and light truck markets. With the government's twice-upgrade of oil prices and the implementation of overweight policies such as toll-by-weight in 2006, high-grade heavy-duty trucks with large tonnage, high horsepower and more fuel economy have become the focus of the buyer's market, with Dongfeng Tianlong and Shaanxi Auto Delong. The series of high-end heavy trucks represented by Sinotruk Haohao 8 and other products brought new growth points to their own factories and successfully played the role of imported high-end heavy truck replacements. At present, large-capacity heavy trucks have become an international trend. Weichai's newly-developed WD12 diesel engine and gasoline engine are making up for the lack of domestic truck power. Its power covers 336 to 480 hp, which has reached the conventional level in European countries.
With the economic development and the acceleration of urbanization, the light truck market is also facing an upgrade from low-end economical light trucks to high-end light trucks. This change shows that users who have become more sophisticated in their consumption concepts have not only used the light trucks as their means of production, but they are no longer satisfied with the basic requirement of only carrying cargo, but have turned to be able to carry cargo. Beautiful, comfortable, safe and luxurious models.
At present, the development trend of domestic light trucks shows that high-grade light trucks will become one of the main models of the light truck market, and at the same time it also marks the pace at which domestic light trucks have begun to be upgraded. Such high-end light trucks as Jiangling, Qingling, Ao Ling, and JAC have been greatly improved in terms of quality, safety, comfort, fuel economy, and carrying capacity, and are comparable to Japanese light trucks.
Increased emission standards
With the contradiction between economic development and environmental protection in China, truck emission standards have once again been put on the agenda. According to the relevant regulations, in the whole country, the approval of new light trucks will be implemented on July 1, 2007, and the implementation of country 4 standards will begin on July 1, 2010. The approval of new models for heavy trucks will begin on January 1, 2008. The implementation country 3 standard, the implementation country 4 standard from January 1, 2010, and the implementation country 5 standard from January 1, 2012.
A year ago, Beijing had already implemented the national 3 emission standards for heavy trucks. However, from the actual results, trucks equipped with China's 3 emission standard engines have caused buyers to erode due to high prices. On the other hand, the lack of relevant laws and regulations, as well as the lack of enforcement of the relevant law enforcement agencies, have caused the Beijing City Road to be flooded with trucks and deck trucks that do not meet the standards. Therefore, although the emission standards have been gradually increased, the cost control of the engine and the related supervision systems are in urgent need of improvement if the expected results are achieved.
Positive factors promote the development of medium and heavy truck market
In interviews with reporters, most people in truck companies believe that the Central Economic Work Conference held in December 2006 laid the foundation for the development of the truck market in the healthy direction in 2007. Dongfeng Commercial Vehicles told reporters that it is now possible to see the signal that the overall economy will maintain a good momentum of development in 2007: GDP growth is expected to be around 10.5%, fixed asset investment growth is around 25%, and consumption growth is around 13%. The growth rate of imports and exports will be around 20%, and the consumer price increase will be within 2%. The road transport market will continue to maintain the low-speed and stable development momentum in 2006. All this is providing a reliable guarantee for the stable and healthy development of China's truck market. At the same time, the rapid development of China’s auto exports has also provided business opportunities for the truck market. Main truck companies represented by Dongfeng remain optimistic about entering the overseas market.
At the same time, this person also analyzed that 2007 was the second year of China’s “Eleventh Five-Year Planâ€. From the history since the reform and opening up, almost every year of the “Five-Year Plan†was faster than economic and investment. last year. However, unlike in the past, the state will strictly control new projects in 2007 to curb high-energy-consuming and high-pollution projects; however, the pace of investment in domestic heavy industries, energy, roads, railways, urban construction, and rural areas will not be sufficient in 2007. Will change, investment will continue to grow. Therefore, it is expected that the heavy-duty truck market will maintain stable growth in 2007, and the growth rate will remain between 10% and 15%.
Chen Peng, deputy general manager of Foton Motor Marketing, analyzed several factors that led the development of the truck market in the future from a microscopic perspective. He believes that the signs of recovery in the truck market in 2007 can be seen first from the growth trend of freight rates. Chen Peng explained that from the freight price index system of Futian Research, since the beginning of last year, China's freight rates began to rise, and the largest increase in the last quarter of the fourth quarter, so freight is expected to continue to maintain a steady upward trend in 2007. It can be seen that the demand for transport capacity in China's logistics industry is continuously growing. Secondly, from the perspective of consumer credit, it is expected that the related policies for consumer credit will not change much in 2007. However, various domestic consumer credit models are relatively mature at present. Its healthy operation will provide a good running guarantee for the truck market.
When talking about the changes in the product structure of the truck market in the coming year, Chen Peng said that on the one hand, the model products represented by heavy trucks account for half of the truck market, while the increase in medium- and medium-heavy trucks is low, accounting for about 40 percent of the market. % of the share, but it is expected that in the coming year, the growth rate of the medium and heavy truck market will accelerate even more. The reason is mainly due to the impact of China's road transport regulations and policies. Currently, 12 provinces and regions have implemented toll-by-weight, and four other provinces and districts are trialling. In the coming year, there will be 10 provinces and districts. Gravity charges have been imposed one after another. Under this policy orientation, Futian found through investigation that transporters who currently have fixed sources of supply are rarely overloaded. "Regulations have changed the heavy truck market and changed people's spending habits," said Chen Peng.
On the other hand, Chen Peng believes that power upgrade is also a new trend in China's truck market in the coming year. He said that currently the foreign truck market is dominated by more than 400 horsepower, while in China only 5% of the models are more than 400 horsepower; and in the near future, the power level of China's truck market will be rapidly upgraded. The 300-horsepower model is expected. Market share will increase further.
In 2007, China will fully implement the country's 3 emission standards, and the country’s three-year national overarching work will soon be over. High oil prices, raw materials, and various vehicle management costs will affect the truck market in China for a long time. development of. However, the favorable factors in the market environment and domestic demand for automobiles will continue to support the stable development momentum of China's truck market.
