Bad annual report with the worst quarterly report in the history of Changan Automobile's stock price slipped to historical freezing point

As the aging performance of Changan Ford's models has declined, Changan Automobile, an independent brother who contributed 80% of its profits, has become increasingly saddened. After 2017, where financial indicators fell sharply, in the first quarter of this year, its deducted net profit dropped by another 60%.

The brighter the light, the longer the shadow. For the 2009 69 shareholders of Changan Automobile (000625.SZ), the marks left by the 15th Beijing International Auto Show were so contradictory and entangled.

Whether it is to repeat the “Shangri-La Plan” to stop production of traditionally-known fuel vehicles in 2025 or the “Beidou Tianshu Project” for smart driving for the first time, behind the romantic name, this company has always been regarded as the fourth-largest auto group in China and its homeland. The star company of Chongqing, an independent brand, has performed abnormally high-profile at the auto show at the end of April.

However, it is worth noting that the company had just disclosed an annual report that disappointed investors very much on April 18.

According to statistics, this large group with its own brands and several joint venture brands including Ford, Mazda, Suzuki, and PSA Peugeot Citroën, the 2017 net profit has decreased from 10.258 billion yuan in 2016 to 7.137 billion yuan, a decrease of 30.61% . As for the reasons for losses, the Changan Automobile's explanation was "mainly caused by the decline in investment income from joint venture companies."

Is there any improvement in the first quarter of 2018? It should be noted that Changan Automobile's share price has continued to decline, and it ended at 10.36 yuan per share on the last trading day in April - this point has fallen 33% from its 52-week high, and is only 0.05 yuan higher than the one-year-old valley value. Even if it is lower than the historical low of 10.07 yuan set in August three years ago, it is not much better. What investors are now looking forward to is just a sure thing.

Confidence is not enough. Based on years of experience in the past, Changan Automobile is often not performing well in the first quarter of each year. Taking the same period last year as an example, revenue of RMB17.667 billion decreased by 8.64% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to the mother of RMB2.401 billion decreased by 10.16%, especially for Changan Ford Motor Co., which once accounted for 80% of the company’s profits, and sales of 200,700 units were in the current quarter. It fell by 20.17%.

The more you worry about what you say, the more you will fulfill. With the A-share market entering the May 1st Golden Holiday, the quarterly report that has not yet appeared unveiled investors' anxiety.

"Murphy's law" is not divided into Chinese and foreign countries. On the evening of April 27, the financial data of Chang'an Automobile in the first quarter of 2018, which had come late, proved this again.

Let's take a look: 20.01 billion yuan revenue rose 13.26% year-on-year. Not bad? Unfortunately, this is the only positive indicator. In the quarter, the net profit attributable to 1.391 billion yuan was greatly reduced by 42.04%. To make matters worse, the performance of net profit after deductions was 596 million more than the year-on-year evaporation of 60.52%. It is noted that in the period of 2017, the net profit for homeowners and non-negotiated investors was only a difference of 130 million yuan, but now it has increased to 495 million yuan, which investors naturally appreciate. As for the year-on-year decline of 42% to 0.29 yuan per share, it is logical.

The figures can be fine-tuned, but the conclusions are nailed. Changan Automobile has just passed its coldest quarter since its listing.

All kinds of complaints from small shareholders are difficult to avoid. For example, if the stock price is 9 yuan, or if the Rmb50bn R&D investment has gone, it must be accountable. Of course, there is no lack of self-comfort. Careful statistics from investors have found that since the 3rd quarter of 2015, the national team approached the market, among which Huijin had bought 55.39 million shares at an average price of 16.49 yuan/share and held it until now, with a book loss of approximately 339 million yuan. At the same time, the company entering the market in the same period has held holdings of holdings for five times in two and a half years and is currently stuck in full.

Actually, describe the current situation of Changan Automobile and compare it with another reference coefficient. The same is "poor macro environment," which is also "adjusted by the purchase tax policy." As of April 27, the total market value of the company's A shares was 49.75 billion yuan, compared to 185.76 billion Hong Kong dollars of Geely Auto (00175.HK) ( The market value of approximately RMB 149.8 billion yuan and the market value of Great Wall Motors (601633.SH) of RMB 99.487 billion are quite different. The latter two are 3 times and 1.99 times respectively for Changan Automobile.

Why is there a "shortcoming" from "perfect" is the "attractive" existence in reality? It is still such a literary and artistic temperament. This is a new advertising slogan for Auchan Automotive, which will soon be split from Changan Commercial Vehicles and operate independently and is seeking a mixed ownership reform. The question is, for Changan Automobile, is it just a bit of a pity to perfection?

Rise and Fall are Dependent on Ford

Everything has to go back to the 2017 annual report that was released before.

According to financial data, the company’s operating revenue for 2017 was approximately RMB 80.012 billion, an increase of 1.87% year-on-year; net profit attributable to the mother was RMB 7.137 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 30.61%. The company said that the decline in performance was mainly due to the impact of the joint venture on the end of the product, sales volume and profitability.

As a profit winner, Changan Ford sold 8.28 million vehicles in 2017, a year-on-year decrease of 12.27%. It not only failed to meet the set target of 1 million vehicles in the same year, but also ended the trend of positive sales growth for six consecutive years. During the period, the sales of major models such as Ruijie, Mondeo, Maverick, and Ford, which contributed to Changan Ford's profits, fell by 13%, 2%, 17% and 30%, respectively.

In order to recover the trend, Changan Ford once lowered its price by 10,000 yuan to 15,000 yuan in April last year; in January 2018, it again lowered the official amount by 15,000 yuan to 20,000 yuan. At the same time, Ruijie also lowered its official pricing by 20,000 yuan to 30,000 yuan.

However, lowering the price does not have a corresponding effect. The senior industry researcher clearly stated in an interview with the “Investment Times” reporter: “Current automobile consumers tend to be younger in the visual aesthetic of the vehicle, but Chang’an Automobile is somewhat backward in design and there is no product of an explosion model. This makes the company's energy too scattered. From an internal point of view, the company's overall operating process is also slightly rigid."

Ford Xing Chang Xingxing, although for the "self-branded brother", the above results are somewhat embarrassing, but it is after all a fact. The “Investment Times” reporter reviewed the relevant data and noted that as the group’s most important joint venture, Chang’an Ford’s revenue for 2017 was 106.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.1%; net profit was 12.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33%. According to the composition of the shares of China and the United States in the 5th five-year period, the days of Changan Automobile will obviously not be better. The company further stated that the profitability of 2017 dropped sharply, mainly due to a larger decline in the profitability of Mouton. The sales volume dropped from 115,000 units to 92.5 units, a drop of 20%. Sharp also saw a 12.3% decline.

The aging of the model will inevitably bring about a decline in sales and cause the gross profit margin to continue to sink. The data show that in 2017, its gross profit margin was 13.31%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.58 percentage points; net interest rate was 9.01%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.07 percentage points; gross margin decline was mainly affected by the end of the product's life cycle, and its profitability fell. Fortunately, the decline in net profit margin was slightly lower than gross margin.

Now is the key point. It is important to remember that in 2017, Changan Automobile's bicycle revenue was RMB 128,100, a decrease of 4.42%, and bicycle profit was RMB 14,700, a decrease of 23.44%. If even Ford cannot afford to maintain a high profit situation, other independent brands can imagine.

Some researchers disclosed to the Investment Times: “After the '1515' strategy, Changan Ford’s model growth has stagnated, and no new models will be available in 2017. Chang’an Ford has accounted for 80% of Chang’an’s profits and forecasts sales this year. It will continue to decline by 18% to 67.7 million vehicles and affect Changan Automobile's 2018 annual revenue."

It is interesting that on April 25, the United States Ford Motor also released the company's first quarterly report in 2018, the company achieved a net profit of 1.736 billion US dollars in the quarter, a simultaneous increase of 9.39%.

The trouble always comes together. At the same time as the Ford’s contribution was weak, in March 2018, Changan Automobile recalled 252,087 defective vehicles that had been sold, which accounted for about 70% of the recalls of the domestic automobile market over the same period.

Shangri-La plans to venture into advance

As a key development direction for China's manufacturing of the 2025 and mid- and long-term plans for the automotive industry, new energy vehicles are self-evident. With the release of fuel truck countdowns and withdrawal schedules in several countries, especially under the catalysis of new energy policies such as “fuel consumption restrictions” and “dual credit” in China, the proportion of strategic investment in new energy automotive products by major car companies has increased rapidly. .

Changan Automobile Shangri-La plans to make its debut.

From Changan Automobile's statement in the annual report, we can see that the company has started research and development of new energy automotive products since 2005. It is the first domestic manufacturer of passenger cars to enter the field of new energy, and is also the first domestic company to obtain new energy pure electric and hybrid power. Qualification, the earliest enterprises engaged in new energy demonstration operations, and the earliest realization of new energy commercialization. According to the data, Changan Automobile achieved sales of 29,300 new energy vehicles in 2017, a year-on-year increase of 219.80%.

Of course, there will always be shortcomings between ideals and reality. On the one hand, sustained high investment will put pressure on the company's performance for a considerable period of time. At the same time, the company's high R&D investment has always been criticized by the outside world. The Great Wall of China, which merged with Mercedes-Benz's Geely and closely cooperates with Baoma, is a new energy vehicle leader, BYD (002594.SZ), which has completed the backdoor of Beiqi New Energy, not to mention the numerous capital blessings of the “new carmaker”. "Not only in terms of autonomy, but also in technology accumulation, it is not inferior to Changan Automobile.

The crowds waited, but this is almost a game that can't be lost. The pressure of Chang'an car can be imagined.

Integration, full of imagination and full of variables

From PSA to acquire Opel, Pareto acquires Takada, and before GAC Group considers the acquisition of Fiat Chrysler, global automotive companies are speeding up reshuffle. From the domestic point of view, from the acquisition of Fujian Benz by BAIC, to Gio, a wholly-owned subsidiary of GAC, to FAW and DFG once merging merger rumors, there are more and more indications that mergers and acquisitions will become the new normal of the next auto industry. .

Since 2017, there have been rumors of mergers between the three major state-owned enterprise groups of FAW, Dongfeng and Chang’an. On March 9 this year, the signing ceremony of the China National First Automobile Group Co., Ltd., Dongfeng Motor Group Co., Ltd. and Chongqing Chang'an Automobile Co., Ltd. in the field of cooperation projects in the field of manufacturing cooperation and project approval and initiation was held at the headquarters of Dongfeng Company, officially launching the manufacturing field. The first phase of the six cooperation projects was interpreted as a substantial progress in the cooperation of the “national team” of the three major car companies.

Although it was only a normal business cooperation, some researchers used the internal structure as a perspective to preset FAW, Dongfeng, and Chang’an if they were merged. The person thinks that the respective areas of strength and weakness of the independent groups of the three groups have a stage of success in each of the games despite the fact that the overlap is similar.

In the field of passenger vehicles, Changan Automobile is still the highest-selling autonomous passenger vehicle company so far. Only Geely can threaten its status in 2018, but Changan has reaped rewards for high-end autonomous passenger vehicles; There is no success in marketization, but the precipitation of technology and the reference to foreign brands are still at the forefront of independent brands. Today, Xu Liuping personally inspires the revitalization of the red flag, it is precisely for the future of luxury cars to seek breakthrough breakthroughs.

For commercial vehicles, FAW heavy trucks and Changan mini-vehicles have achieved good results, but if the balance is given to both the military and the civilian population, non-Eastern winds must be considered. If the future merger, FAW leads the high-end passenger car with the red flag, Dongfeng main commercial vehicle, Changan, the popular brand passenger car, will be a more reasonable structure.

Of course, FAW in hand Changan is most optimistic about the industry. In particular, since August 2017 Changle Automobile Chairman Xu Liuping was transferred to the chairman of any steamer, he took drastic measures against the latter, and his reforms were relatively large. If FAW and Changan succeed together, the future FAW Group and Changan Automobile may collaborate on various areas including existing and future vehicle products, parts procurement, international distribution, and R&D management.

Do you remember the fashionable slogan of the new car in Changan? There is his second half - no more regrets, but you are perfect.

However, the so-called "perfect" still exists only in the imagination space. On May 3, Changan Automobile opened at 10.09 yuan/share, once a new low of 9.99 yuan/share. At the onset of the summer of 2018, Changan Automobile is struggling in the freezing point.