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Insufficient supply of domestic polyolefins Industry experts believe that China's olefin and downstream derivatives markets are still growing and are becoming the center of the world's petrochemical market. This rigid supply of domestic demand is difficult to meet, and a large supply and demand gap exists.
China's per capita polyolefin consumption is still lower than the world average, and there is more room for future growth. According to the data from Asian Chemicals, the annual per capita consumption of polyethylene and polypropylene in the world is 8 kg and 5 kg respectively, in China only 5 kg and 4.5 kg, and in North America, the per capita consumption of polyethylene and polypropylene is as high as 37 kg and 17 kg.
Sinopec Research Institute of Economics and Technology predicts that China's ethylene demand growth will maintain a certain speed from 2010 to 2015. The growth rate will be around 5% in 2010-2012, and the growth rate will be around 5%-7% in 2013-2015. The annual consumption of ethylene in China exceeded 35 million tons. From 2010 to 2015, China's propylene demand growth will continue to maintain a certain speed. The growth rate will be around 6% in 2010-2012, and the growth rate will be around 5%-7% in 2013-2015. By 2015, the apparent demand for propylene in China will increase. At 21 million tons, the equivalent consumption is close to 26 million tons.
With the implementation of the 12th Five-Year Plan, especially the development of refining capacity and the ethylene industry and the development of coal chemical industry in western China, the supply of polyolefins will increase, but it is still difficult to meet the demand. Sinopec Research Institute of Economics and Technology estimates that by 2015 China's polyethylene capacity will be 15.88 million tons, demand is 21 million tons, and the gap is about 5.12 million tons; polypropylene production capacity is 16.98 million tons, demand is 17.8 million tons, and the gap is about 820,000 tons .
Coal-to-olefins are faced with multiple constraints The long-term existence of polyolefin supply and demand gap provides a good opportunity for development of coal-to-olefins, but conditions such as water resources, environmental protection, and technology are restricting the development of the industry.
The process for producing olefins can be divided into petroleum routes and coal routes based on raw materials. A research report from the China National Chemical Information Center (CIC) suggested that as the price of crude oil rises, coal will gradually replace petroleum as the basic raw material for the chemical industry. Asian Chemicals Consulting believes that with the growth of China's energy consumption, the degree of dependence on foreign oil will gradually increase, which will bring opportunities for the development of coal chemical industry. In the five types of modern coal chemical demonstrations put forward by the Chinese government, the coal-to-olefin and coal-to-ethylene glycol markets are not regulated and have good prospects.
Companies have already seen opportunities for development of coal-to-olefins and have plans to launch projects. According to incomplete statistics from Asian Chemicals, China will start construction of more than 20 coal-to-olefins (including externally-purchased methanol to olefins) projects within three years (including production and ongoing trials). According to statistics from China Chemical Network, as of the end of 2009, the total coal-to-olefin production capacity planned for the country has exceeded 20 million tons.
There is a high level of enthusiasm for investment in enterprises, but the industry has to face more restrictive factors in order to truly industrialize and generate economic benefits. Xia Lei, general manager of Asian Chemicals Consulting Co., Ltd., said that many coal-based olefins plants are located in coal-rich areas, and the production process requires a lot of water, but the water resources in these areas are relatively scarce. Another industry insiders suggested that environmental protection and technology still restrict the development of the industry.
“In the considerable period to come, the olefins in the petroleum route will still be in a dominant position, while coal-to-olefins will mainly play a supplementary role and be in an auxiliary position. The policy will implement total control based on environment and resource carrying capacity and moderate development.†Liu Yanwei, deputy chief engineer of the Planning Institute of Chemical Industry, said.
In addition, in the long run, the industrialization of coal-to-olefins will also face the pressure of low-priced imported products along with the olefin products of the domestic oil routes. A corporate source said: "China does not need to pursue polyolefin self-sufficiency rate of 100%. Importing low-cost petrochemical products abroad is a good choice, and it can ease the pressure on domestic energy supply."
Coal-to-olefins "12th Five-Year Plan" is still in an auxiliary position
At the second symposium on coal-to-olefins technology held on November 22, business people and experts proposed that the growth in demand for polyolefins in China has brought good development opportunities for the development of coal-to-olefins, but it is subject to technology and water. Resources, environmental protection and other conditions are bound to predict that the "12th Five-Year" period, the oil route olefins will still be in a dominant position, coal and olefins from the supplementary role, in an auxiliary position, the government will implement total control based on environmental and resource bearing capacity, moderate development .