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With the rapid growth of the automotive market, the demand for oil from automobiles is increasing. In the past 2006, the country raised the alternative energy strategy to a new height. In this context, ethanol gasoline has received unprecedented attention. In 2004, the production of fuel ethanol nationwide was only 200,000 tons, and it reached 750,000 tons in 2005 after the pilot project of expanding the use of ethanol for gasoline, which was expected to exceed 1.1 million tons in 2006. What is the background behind this acceleration? What are the problems in the development of ethanol gasoline? What is the status of the development of ethanol gasoline in the world? What are the attitudes of auto giants on ethanol gasoline?
The car should refuel. The regular master who opened a taxi came to the gas station at Beijing Exhibition Road. But in the refueling area, the pennant line was pulled up by a pennant. The sign on the entrance read “Closing for ethanol Gasoline Gasolineâ€. This is likely to be something happening at major gas stations in Beijing one day before 2010. The same scene is likely to occur in Shanghai, Tianjin and other places in succession.
“The use of ethanol gasoline during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period will be transferred from nine pilot provinces and cities during the “Tenth Five-Year Plan†period to spread across all regions except Tibet, Qinghai, Ningxia, Shanxi and Gansu.†National Institute of Macroeconomic Research, National Development and Reform Commission A person involved in the preparation of the "11th Five-Year Plan for Special Development of Biofuels Ethanol and Automotive Ethanol Gasoline" ("Planning") recently revealed to reporters that according to the "planning", during the "11th Five-Year Plan" period, China will produce 6 million tons of bio-liquid fuel. Among them, 5 million tons of fuel ethanol and 1 million tons of biodiesel.
According to the forecast of the relevant government agencies, the increase in transportation fuel consumption between 2005 and 2020 accounted for nearly 90% of the total increase in national oil consumption. In 2010, the scale of China's gasoline market will reach 66.5 million tons. According to the 10% ethanol addition, China's vehicle ethanol gasoline will reach 50 million tons. This means that more than 75% of cars in the country use this “alcoholic gasolineâ€.
This is a geometric growth. In 2004, the national production of fuel ethanol was only 200,000 tons, which reached 750,000 tons in 2005 after the pilot project of expanding the use of ethanol for gasoline, and it is expected to exceed 1.1 million tons in 2006. What is the background behind this acceleration?
On April 20, 2006, the State Council’s Energy Leading Group held its second meeting. The National Development and Reform Commission reported to Premier Wen Jiabao the status of the biomass energy pilot project and the next direction of development. At the same time, Academician Shi Yuanchun of the two institutes made a special report to Premier Wen Jiabao on future energy research topics, and suggested that China should include biomass energy as a national energy strategy as soon as possible.
Shi Yuanchun's project outlines the future of biomass energy: Each year, China will use 50% of the country's crop stalks, 40% of livestock and poultry manure, 30% of forestry waste, and about 5.5 million hectares of marginal land to plant energy plants. A biomass conversion plant whose production capacity can be equivalent to an annual production capacity of 50 million tons of oil is equal to the construction of a Daqing oil field.
"Premier Wen listened very seriously and raised many specific questions. Finally, he said, 'Early consciousness, early action'. The Minister of Finance Jin Renqing added a sentence, 'Early results,'" said Shi Yuanchun, the nine words are Fuel ethanol (fuel ethanol is recognized as the preferred product of biomass energy) is a key factor in acceleration.
The person from the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission told the reporter that through the pilot phase of the two-stage car ethanol fuel system in the past five years, the country has formed a considerable market size. We have gained valuable experience in policies and regulations, organization and management, production and supply, marketing, and technical services. This cannot be compared with other alternative energy products.
In fact, the sudden acceleration of fuel ethanol is also related to a wider range of fuel ethanol competitions that are emerging around the world. In January last year, U.S. President Bush addressed the State of the Union speech and reaffirmed his determination to develop fuel ethanol as a substitute for some oil. The European Union, Japan, Canada, India and other countries are scrambling to invest in this international competition.
In this case, the development of fuel ethanol was quickly elevated to a new level. On May 10 last year, the National Development and Reform Commission convened the trials of the provincial pilots of the Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, PetroChina, Sinopec, and fuel ethanol. Participants believe that future fuel ethanol will not pose a threat to food security. It is the broad consensus reached this time that the basic content of "Planning" has been formed. More than a month later, leaders of the nine leading ministries and commissions of the relevant countries, as well as representatives of PetroChina and Sinopec, and representatives of companies gathered together to conduct a special argumentation on the pilot project. The meeting set the tone for the implementation of the Plan.
In August last year, Beijing Yongxing Garden Hotel discussed the strategic position of ethanol gasoline for a full 4 days. At a meeting attended by leaders of experts, government departments, Sinopec, and PetroChina, the future of ethanol fuel will eventually be "clad".
The "Planning" plans to use billions of dollars in financial resources for the production of ethanol from non-food crop stalks to support the development of the industrial production of cellulosic ethanol, and to reduce taxes on taxes and fees. In addition, the government's preferential policies for the fuel ethanol industry include: implementation of elastic loss subsidies to prevent industrial risks such as petroleum and other energy price spreads; implementation of raw material base construction subsidies and demonstration subsidies; multiple tax incentives such as the return of value-added tax, reduction of fuel tax Wait. Not only that, but during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, some regions will also use gasoline with higher ethanol content.
One afternoon in the middle of last month, an emergency notice from the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance was sent to all parts of the country. The circular called for the strengthening of the construction and management of biofuel ethanol projects, and made clear its position on the ongoing development of corn deep processing ethanol in various regions and did not support it.
In China, the main raw material for biofuel ethanol is corn. “At present, the proportion of ethanol processing industry that uses corn as raw material is about 80%. Almost all corn in the northeast is corn ethanol,†said Wen Na, manager of China CornNet's R&D department.
In June 2002, the trial of ethanol gasoline for vehicles started in five cities including Zhengzhou and Harbin. Up to now, the pilot has expanded to 27 cities in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Henan, Anhui, and Hubei, Shandong, Hebei, and Jiangsu provinces.
The beginning of the experiment was due to the difficulty of selling grain by the farmers, the overload of the national grain bank, and the accumulation of a lot of aged food in the grain warehouses in the northeast. At that time, the leaders of the State Council hoped to use Chen Hualiang, pilot ethanol fuel projects, and open up a new energy channel.
“A few years later today, many things have undergone major changes. Chen Hualiang will disappear, and the fuel ethanol project that no one would be willing to do in the past has become “Toon†from today’s “Buddha Wotou.†The main reason is that the price of oil At a high level, everyone feels that fuel ethanol is profitable.†Sinopec researcher Qiao Yingbin said.
The National Grain and Oil Information Center predicts that China's corn production in 2007 will be 145 million tons. According to Wang Guming, former Secretary-General of the China Food Business Association, the industrial demand will grow at a normal rate of 4% according to the ultra-high growth of 30%. The total corn consumption in 2007 will be close to 135 million tons.
In 2005, China exported 8.16 million tons of corn. In the first half of 2006, it exported only 2.27 million tons. A significant reduction in the annual export volume is a foregone conclusion. Datagro, the largest sugar forecasting agency in Brazil, predicts that by 2012, the competitive demand for corn by the Chinese food industry and the ethanol industry may cause China to reduce corn exports and eventually become a corn importer.
Wang Ziming said: "The food issue in China will always be an overriding political issue. How can we give our fate to others?"
According to the regulations of the National Development and Reform Commission, the fuel ethanol produced by the four designated enterprises was sold to PetroChina at a price of 4,782,000 yuan per ton, while the processing cost of fuel ethanol was nearly 5,000 yuan per ton. The losses incurred by the Ministry of Finance are subsidized based on the principle of "no loss and no profit". Since the pilot project in 2002, the four fixed-point fuel ethanol production enterprises have reduced tax exemptions by 190 million yuan, and the central government has allocated a total of 2 billion yuan in loss subsidies.
Qiao Yingbin said that according to the national plan of thinking, by 2020, the production capacity of grain fuel ethanol will be controlled at 1.5 million tons, which is basically the capacity of the four fixed-point enterprises, and the state will no longer approve new or newly expanded food fuel ethanol projects. The focus of the subsidy will also shift to non-food materials projects. The new 4.2 million tons of fuel ethanol production capacity by 2010 will be entirely based on non-food crops such as cassava, sweet sorghum and straw.
If you calculate a detailed account of the above raw materials, you will find that the raw material supply of fuel ethanol still faces many difficulties.
According to industry experts, consumption of sweet potato, cassava, sweet sorghum, and corn per ton of fuel ethanol is 8 tons, 7 tons, 15 tons, and 3.3 tons, respectively. The total production cost per ton of fuel ethanol is the lowest in the sweet sorghum, and in 2000, Around yuan, corn is about 3700 yuan, and cassava and sweet potato are the highest, between 4000-4500 yuan.
Taken together, the current supply of non-food materials for various reasons is not stable enough and urgently needs to be scaled up.
An industry expert pointed out that corn is still the best raw material for producing fuel ethanol. How to ensure the supply of non-grain materials, and how to use marginal land, is the biggest test for the ambitious "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" bioenergy project with non-food as the development direction.
In fact, according to the national fuel ethanol strategic plan, the most ideal design is to achieve industrial-scale production of domestic cellulose ethanol.
According to the data provided by the Ministry of Agriculture, China's straw resources amount to 600 million tons. At present, 300 million tons are used for fuel wood fuel consumption, and the rest are burned. According to data provided by the Ministry of Forestry, the amount of forestry waste resources in China is 800 million tons per year, including 500 million tons of industrial consumption, and 300 million tons are urgently needed for development and utilization. According to the U.S.'s technical level of producing 1 ton of ethanol per 4 ton of straw, these raw materials will produce 75 million tons of fuel ethanol. If the cellulose fuel ethanol technology achieves breakthrough progress and industrial production is achieved, it will play a crucial role in breaking through the bottleneck of China's resources.
Shi Yuanchun, a member of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, a member of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, and a member of the Third World Academy of Sciences, estimates that China's rich biomass resources can build a green oil field with an annual output of 100 million tons within 15 years. According to China's actual situation and the use of foreign experience, China's appropriate development of biomass energy has five strategic products, ranking in order of importance are fuel ethanol, molded fuel, industrial biogas, bio-plastics and biodiesel. China has abundant resources for the production of fuel ethanol and is the first choice for the development of biomass energy. There is not much difference in the starting time between the development of biomass energy in this new industry and that of the United States and Europe. However, there is a big gap between the basic work, the promotion of the state and enterprises, and the development indicators and speeds proposed. Therefore, the state should guide and support the development of biomass energy as soon as possible.
Yin Weilun, academician of the Beijing Forestry University and academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering: China has entered an era relying on the development of biomass, which is consistent with the trend of the world. To solve the shortage of resources and realize energy substitution will play an important role. The formulation of non-food is correct, but we must also use grain, not compete with the grain, and look outside the cultivated land. Land development and utilization must be combined with ecological construction to prevent soil erosion and create new problems. We must take the path of harmonious development with the ecological environment. Cellulose ethanol, as a future development direction, is not emphasized enough. The goal is to start cellulosic ethanol like Chenhualiang as raw materials during the “Tenth Five-Year Plan†period, and increase investment to lay the foundation for the long-term development of biomass energy.
Professor Li Shizhong, deputy director of the Institute of New Energy Technology, Tsinghua University's Institute of Advanced Energy Technology: In the near future, the realization of oil substitution in the world is mainly achieved through two approaches: one is coal-based oil, and the other is the development of biomass energy. Since coal-to-oil is just a conversion between primary energy sources, it cannot guarantee the sustainable supply of energy fundamentally. Many countries in the world will focus on the development of biomass energy as a national energy strategy.
The greatest significance of the national fiscal and taxation policies for the biomass energy industry is that it will strongly promote the oil substitution strategy and reduce the pressure on petrochemical resources and the ecological environment.
Yan Lin, associate researcher at the Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: Although there are a wide variety of renewable energies in the world, there are very few alternatives to petroleum. Biofuels are currently the only large renewable energy source that can enter the market and can replace petroleum fuels. Therefore, bioethanol and biodiesel as gasoline additives are the first choice for alternative oil.
We need to calmly analyze what natural conditions and institutional conditions are needed, as well as the feasibility of developing and promoting technology in our country. The success of Brazil's biofuel development strategy does not mean that its technical route is also feasible in other countries because sugar cane varieties are strongly geographical and cannot be transplanted on other continents. No country can rely on technology to develop its own biofuel industry.
Wang Mengjie, deputy director of the China Renewable Energy Society: At present, the technology of non-food crops is still in the primary development stage, which requires the support of the national fiscal and taxation policies, thereby accelerating the industrial development process. However, the state's subsidies should not allow enterprises to "stick" to them forever, and they will not enterprisingly and become "fighting up the fight." The state must adopt certain mechanisms to encourage enterprises to reduce costs, increase efficiency, and accelerate technological progress. The purpose of the subsidy should be to let the company get rid of subsidies as soon as possible.
Chinese Academy of Sciences Yu Tingyun: The use of biomass energy in China is still a virgin land and has great potential. Biomass is characterized by low energy density, decentralized production areas, and difficulties in processing, storage, and transportation. Therefore, the scale and benefits are closely related. China's current biomass energy consumption is very large, but its technical level and efficiency are low. For example, biogas construction is large and it can be used less continuously. The Chenhua Grain Fuel Ethanol Project has a large amount of ethanol, but its technology is backward and its efficiency is poor. Each ton needs to be subsidized more than 1,000 yuan. In addition, the research on biomass energy in China is sporadic, and it lacks long-term planning and goals, and funding is scarce. For the future development of biomass energy, technological innovation is the key, mainly to develop excellent germplasm selection of energy plants, increase unit production, reduce raw material costs, and combine ecological and agricultural structural adjustment.
“The high oil prices that have not existed in history have made the world energy outlook in 2006 have become bleak. With the exception of Brazil and oil-producing countries, the rest of the world seems to feel pessimistic and disappointed,†the Washington Post said a few days ago. .
The Washington Post's argument stems from this reality. After nearly 10 years of efforts, Brazil has achieved energy self-sufficiency last year and has become an energy exporter. Ethanol gasoline has been continuously exported to all parts of the world. Not only that, according to optimistic estimates of some major car manufacturers in Brazil, since the introduction of the ethanol and gasoline hybrid vehicles, Brazil will bid farewell to gasoline-fueled vehicles in less than three years. Instead, ethanol and gasoline can replace each other. The new energy-saving and environmentally friendly car.
Brazil's dependence on ethanol gasoline to get rid of its dependence on oil has made the U.S. government very envious. US lawmakers and venture capitalists came to Brazil and wanted to see the future of the US energy landscape in Brazil.
The development of fuel ethanol to replace part of the oil has become the determination of President Bush. As early as 2001, only 19 states in the United States used ethanol for motor vehicles, and now they have expanded to 41 states.
In August 2005, Bush signed the "New Energy Law" in the United States, adding to the plan for Clinton's term that the 2012 US fuel ethanol production will reach 16.7 million tons, adding 22.5 million tons.
Moreover, the US government is preparing to quit the “drug addiction†of “oil dependence†that Bush said last year when he published “State of the Union†at the beginning of last year and is preparing to promote the use of alternative fuels such as ethanol through legislative procedures. According to the pending bill of the US Congress on promoting the production and use of biofuels, by the end of 2025, it will ensure that the share of ethanol in the US fuel market will quadruple to 113.55 billion liters. The proposal also proposes to reimburse the installation cost of up to 85% ethanol fuel pump to the maximum cost of 30,000 US dollars, and to give car manufacturers related preferential tax rates to promote the manufacture of dual-fuel vehicles.
Affected by Brazil and the United States, on a Wednesday in June 2006, French Prime Minister De Villepin said in a speech that in order to achieve sustainable development, France should vigorously develop biofuels, and in particular pointed out that the government will approve the use of the E85 in recent days. Gasoline Gasoline (Incorporation of 85% of alcohol with a purity of 99.9% or more in gasoline). The next day, French Minister of Industry Francois Luce officially announced the trial of E85 ethanol gasoline in France, which gave the green light for the official entry of the ethanol gasoline E85 into the French gasoline consumer market.
Among European countries, France has always attached great importance to the development and use of biofuels. At present, the highest ethanol content of ethanol gasoline is 5% in the French market, and E85 ethanol gasoline is valued in the United States and has already been put into use. Under high oil prices, the advantage of E85 ethanol gasoline is that it can reduce oil consumption, reduce emissions, and the price is cheaper than normal gasoline.
Luth also said that the government will soon introduce a supporting plan to invest 2 billion euros in the construction of 16 biofuel factories. The French government hopes to promote the use of biofuels in France through a series of incentive measures. In 2010, the proportion of ethanol in vehicle oil will be increased to 7%, and in 2015, the ethanol ratio will be 10%.
The shock wave of fuel ethanol also hit Japan and India. According to reports by the Japan Economic News, in order to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions and cope with soaring crude oil prices, Japan plans to replace 40% of domestic gasoline consumption with biofuels by fiscal 2010. According to the request of the Japanese government, by the end of fiscal year 2008, any vehicle in Japan must use ethanol gasoline. In India, in March last year, it was mandatory to implement the plan of adding 5% ethanol to motor gasoline throughout the country. Similar plans for the use of ethanol gasoline are also being implemented in countries such as Canada and Sweden.
The U.S.-influenced "fuel ethanol" wave has recently been criticized by some people in the United States because wheat and corn prices have climbed to the highest point in nearly a decade. Concerns about "cars and humans fighting for food" have caused the United States to be wary of resolving oil dependence, but it has brought new problems of grain shortages.
In fact, President Bush’s “energy trip†last year has already made people realize that the United States is working to solve this problem. When Bush visited the U.S. Department of Energy's Renewable Energy Testing Center, scientists are studying the use of fibrous biological materials such as stalks, leaves, and peels of plants to produce ethanol. According to Bush’s vision, this technology will replace a large proportion of imported oil by 2025.
By 2012, the United States will use cellulose feedstocks to achieve the goal of industrial production of 750,000 tons of fuel ethanol. It is also China’s dream to produce ethanol on a scale with cellulose raw materials.
Although proponents of ethanol gasoline are still waiting for news from the US Congress on the promotion and application of biofuels production and use promotion policies, automobile manufacturers in some countries have already started to move.
Recently, at the North American International Auto Show opened in Detroit in the United States, Volvo and Ford introduced the concept cars that can use E85 ethanol gasoline as fuel—the Volvo XC60, the Lincoln MKR, and the Ford IntercepTM.
Not long ago, at the International Auto Show in Los Angeles, USA, Daimler-Chrysler and German Volkswagen also showed cars using E85 ethanol gasoline as fuel.
These automakers are happy to exhibit it, and it should be said that it is not unrelated to this news. It has been reported that, in order to promote the development and production of alternative fuel vehicles by automobile manufacturers, the proposed bill currently awaiting the adoption of the legislative procedures: requiring federal agencies to store alternative fuels; if there is a fuel station, it must allow public use; Subsidy for alternative energy and fuel systems will be given at a cost of 30%, with the maximum amount reaching US$30,000; and the extension of fiscal 2011 biofuels permits from the Ministry of Agriculture will increase the R&D funds by US$460 million annually.
This is an opportunity to compete with Japanese automakers for the three largest automakers in the United States. Ford Motor Company Chairman Bill Ford said recently that it will abandon the company’s earlier target of producing 250,000 hybrid vehicles by the end of 2010. He said that Ford will pursue a broader environmental strategy and shift its focus to the development of alternative fuel vehicles.
Prior to Bill Ford making this statement, Ford, General Motors, and DaimlerChrysler had joined the US Congress and promised to double the annual capacity of alternative fuel vehicles to 2 million by 2010. At present, the three major automobile companies in the United States have already produced 5 million cars that can use 85% ethanol. The U.S. Congress believes that the Bush administration should urge its subordinate departments to speed up the research and development of alternative fuels. Afterwards, Bill Ford emailed all employees and announced this new strategic adjustment.
Earlier, Ford had publicly promised to produce hybrid cars. Now, Bill Ford said that he did not realize that the technology is developing so rapidly, and said that the previously proposed 250,000 hybrid vehicles were too narrow-minded. He believes that in order to improve fuel economy and improve carbon dioxide emissions, we should establish a greater sustainable development goals. He said the company should now focus on other fuels such as ethanol, clean diesel and biodiesel, and advanced engine technology.
Ford subsequently announced a partnership with VeraSun Energy to build 50 E85 ethanol gasoline stations in the Midwestern region of Kansas City and Chicago.
While Ford made a new strategic adjustment, DaimlerChrysler also said that by 2008 one-fourth of the total automobile production will be ethanol gasoline cars. And GM has produced 1.9 million vehicles that can use high levels of ethanol globally.
As people listened to the story of the United States, Sweden in Northern Europe is also actively promoting the popularity of ethanol-fueled vehicles. Scania is the world's only manufacturer of ethanol-fueled commercial vehicles. A diesel engine using pure ethanol fuel plus 5% ignition additive can operate efficiently according to the working principle of the diesel engine. At present, 600 buses using E100 ethanol fuel have been fully operational in various cities in Sweden. Japan’s Honda has also developed a compact car with E20 ethanol gasoline as its fuel.
For Shijiazhuang Motors, Shi Yuanchun, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and the Chinese Academy of Sciences, who is also currently in the process of formulating the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan for Development of Biofuels and Ethanol for Vehicles†demonstration committee chairman, put forward such a question: According to Brazil and the United States The development path has been replaced by the past E10 or E20 ethanol gasoline, and began to use a lot of E85 ethanol gasoline as a fuel car. And these cars can be called flexible fuel vehicles, can add pure gasoline, can also add E10 ethanol gasoline, but also can add E85 ethanol gasoline. As China continues to scale up its ethanol production, it will also take this path.
In fact, at the just-concluded Beijing International Auto Show, U.S. GM exhibited the Saab ethanol fuel vehicle called the latest biodynamic technology. It is worth noting that so far, China's auto companies do not seem to have this news. 