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On February 1, the National Bureau of Statistics announced on its website the official version of the PMI index. According to the data, the manufacturing PMI index fell below the dry line in January 2015, falling to 49.8, the lowest point in the last 28 months.
In contrast with the low PMI index innovation, statistical information is still on the website of the Statistics Bureau: In December 2014, the industrial enterprises above the designated size achieved a profit of 850.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8%, a decrease of 3.8 percentage points over November. Percentage.
There are various signs that this winter is very cold for Chinese manufacturing.
Some readers may ask, I understand the decline in profits, but what does PMI mean? The so-called PMI is an abbreviation of English Purchasing Managers' Index. Translating it into Chinese is a "Purchasing Manager Index". This is an important economic indicator for measuring the operating status of manufacturing or service industries at present and in the future. The PMI I just said is referring to manufacturing.
There are currently two manufacturing purchasing managers in China: one is called the "Official Index," published by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the National Bureau of Statistics; the other is called the "HSBC Index," which is between HSBC and British research firm Markit. Group preparation and release.
According to the statistics of China's manufacturing industry, the HSBC PMI and the official PMI have relatively large gaps. Generally speaking, official data is better than HSBC data. In this regard, Xinhua News Agency once explained that there are many large enterprises and state-owned enterprises in the sample of official PMIs, and the HSBC PMI SMEs have significant powers. But this is only one of the reasons. Another important reason is that official data is more "political."
Now the problem has arisen: an index that focuses on large corporations and state-owned enterprises, and a political-oriented index that has fallen below a new low of 28 months, has broken through the line of prosperity. This can only show that the manufacturing industry is really very difficult. when.
As we all know, a few years ago, China’s manufacturing industry was still very NB, and multinational companies had moved their factories to China one after another. How did they get “old and faded†in an instant? In fact, the biggest root cause was the devaluation of the renminbi and the appreciation of the renminbi. Under this background, on the surface, workers’ wages have been rising continuously. However, as the cost of living in the country continues to rise, the living standards of workers have not been substantially improved. However, the cost of Chinese labor denominated in US dollars has almost doubled in the past six or seven years. Due to the lack of intellectual property protection, excessive government intervention, and heavy tax burden, “Made in China†is undergoing slow transformation and upgrading, and its position in the international industry chain has not been improved for a long time. Therefore, when your labor costs increase, products will no longer have Competitiveness.
In recent years, a large number of multinational companies have closed down Chinese factories and started to shift to Southeast Asia and Africa because of the lower labor costs there. The 2014 foreign direct investment data recently announced by the Ministry of Commerce shows that investment from the United States and Japan to China has fallen sharply in the past year.
Why, then, does the country insist on taking the path of RMB's internal devaluation and foreign appreciation? This is because it is conducive to maintaining the bubble of RMB-denominated assets, which is beneficial to the development of the real estate industry and the acceleration of urbanization. Think about why the Chinese tried hard to buy a house in the past 10 years? Because housing prices are rising fast, you will get rich when you buy, and you will be shuffled if you do not buy, and the social class will move down. Asset bubble has become the most important force to promote the development of urbanization. Local governments can obtain a large amount of land income in this process, which can drive GDP. Officials have achieved a bumper harvest in the public and private sectors.
In this process, the manufacturing industry suffers from point losses that are nothing more than a little taxation. And the government has the money to subsidize manufacturing through export tax rebates. Of course, it is a very pleasant thing to grasp the distribution right of export tax rebates. Officials are happy with it.
But to this day, the asset bubble game has become increasingly difficult to play. Because the house is really overdone, relying on the asset bubble has been unable to promote land transactions, allowing the government to obtain excess returns, it is also difficult to pull GDP. Therefore, the balance of interest needs to be tilted toward the manufacturing industry.
However, strange things have emerged: In order to allow capital to flow into industry, but do not increase the debt ratio of the company and increase bank risk, the country hopes to achieve its goal by revitalizing the stock market. The problem is that the reform of the IPO registration system will take time, at least half a year before it can be implemented, but the stock market has already been revitalized by “playing with hormonesâ€. As a result, funds have not only failed to enter the industry, even the funds of the manufacturing industry have “backstreamed†into the speculation of the stock market. From 2013 to 2014, the game of money speculation shifted from trust and financial management to stocks. The manufacturing industry has continued to show blood loss in the past one or two months.
What to do in the future? There are only two solutions: First, let the yuan devaluate moderately, and lower the overvalued exchange rate; Second, we must step up the reform of the IPO registration system and implement it as soon as possible, and it is an unreserved implementation. If we still retain “characteristics,†That can only make the stock market a "powerful carnival" again.
In short, manufacturing has become an important symbol of the national transport. Without rejuvenating and invigorating the manufacturing industry, China will not truly have a future.
How can China's manufacturing crisis turn into danger?
At present, China's manufacturing industry is facing a crisis. How to turn a crisis into a safe place? How should the manufacturing industry do it? Let us first look at a set of data.