IHS: China's car sales will reach 30 million by 2019

IHS Automotive, a US-based automotive research company, announced global automotive market forecasts as of 2019. It is expected that the global market will continue to grow under the leadership of BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China), and by 2019, the annual sales volume will reach 150 million units.

IHS Automotive expects that the global sales volume of 2019 younger models (vehicles with a gross vehicle weight below 3.5 tons) will increase from 79 million units in 2012 to 150 million units. Of the additional 26 million vehicles, the most significant increase was in China, the world's largest auto market, and in the United States, the second largest auto market in the world.

A comparison of Japan, the United States, Europe, and the BRICs shows that Japan, the United States, and Europe showed slow growth, while the BRICs experienced rapid growth. The total sales volume of BRICs is expected to surpass Japan, the United States and Europe in 2015, reaching more than 45 million vehicles in 2019, more than 7 million vehicles compared with 38 million vehicles from Japan, the United States and Europe.

The BRICs will reach more than 45 million by 2019. In particular, China will reach 30 million vehicles and become a strong support for the growth of BRICs. (Source: IHS Automotive)

Looking at the details of BRICs by country (dotted line), China has an overwhelming advantage. In 2019 sales will exceed 30 million vehicles, an increase of more than 11 million vehicles compared to 19 million in 2012. However, the rapid growth shown in 2008-2010 will not be reproduced, and the growth rate will slow slightly after 2011.

The reason for this is that Chinese cities have restricted the listing of vehicles and the market has matured. IHS predicts that in the future, with the restrictions on vehicle licenses and possible shortage of energy supply, the growth rate may further slow down.

The growth of other countries in the BRICs is less than that of China. It is expected that India will sell 6.5 million vehicles in 2019. At that time, India's per capita GDP can only reach one-third of China's, and only 40 vehicles per 1,000 people remain low. In addition, sales in Brazil and Russia are expected to reach 5.2 million units and 3.6 million units in 2019 respectively.

An important reason for the growth of Japan, the United States, and Europe is the recovery of the US market. Although the Japanese, U.S., and European markets fell to 10.4 million vehicles in the aftermath of the Lehman crisis, most of the economic downturn will show continued growth from previous development trends. In 2011, two years after the Lehman crisis, US sales recovered to 12.7 million vehicles, and it is expected to reach 14.2 million vehicles in 2012. IHS expects the U.S. market growth to continue in the future and will reach 16.6 million by 2019.

In 1619, it will reach 16.6 million vehicles, returning to the level of the first half of the 2000s. Sustained growth after the economic downturn is a feature of the U.S. market. (Source: IHS Automotive)

All of the above are predictions made under the assumption that the impact of the European crisis is less severe. When the economy is suddenly stalled, 1 out of the 746 million total sales from 2012 to 2019 will be lost. This downside risk also needs to be considered.