Infrastructure investment Chao Chung engineering machinery sector rose across the board

Since the end of May, the A-share engineering machinery sector has risen continuously, taking Sany Heavy Industry (600031, stocks) (600031, closing price of 15.24 yuan) as an example. From May 22, the closing price was 14.43 yuan, to yesterday (May 28). At the close of the day, the stock price has jumped to 15.24 yuan, and the range has risen more than 10%.

On the 28th, stocks in the industry also rose ferociously. Shanhe Intelligence (002097, stocks it) (002097, closing price of 9.41 yuan), Shantui shares (000680, stocks it) (000680, closing price of 10.85 yuan), XGMA shares (600,815, stock it) (600,815, closing price of 9.77 yuan) limit The industry leaders such as Zoomlion (000157, stocks) (000157, closing price of 11.15 yuan) and Sany Heavy Industry (600031, closing price of 15.24 yuan) rose by 7.21% and 4.53% respectively.

Capital markets are often the most sensitive. Behind the soaring stock price, related listed companies have ushered in a wave of "super good."

"In the wake of investment in infrastructure and other industries, it is expected that the fundamentals of the industry will usher in more noticeable improvements in June." A few days ago, it was targeting a new round of infrastructure investment boom that has been called "another 4 trillion yuan" by the outside world. A construction machinery industry analyst told reporters so.

The company’s quarterly report on the financial situation of the infrastructure company is worrying. The reporter noticed that the actual construction machinery industry has “sinked” for a long time, compared with the current surge in the stocks of the sector.

In the past year of 2011, due to the country’s frequent macroeconomic controls and tightening of monetary policy, engineering needs have been suppressed, and the construction machinery industry has exhibited a clear “high-to-low” trend. After enjoying “4 trillion” of “big fish”, the entire industry had to “stew up”. This is evident from the 2011 annual report and the Q1 2012 report issued by various companies.

The listed companies of the 10 construction machinery headed by Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, Xugong Machinery (000425, the closing price of 15.70 yuan), achieved a total revenue of 186.7 billion yuan in 2011, an increase of 32% year-on-year; The parent company’s net profit (excluding non-recurring gains and losses) was 22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36%, and both revenue and net profit growth were the lowest in the past three years. The net operating cash flow is the “golden body” that has been positive for the past 10 years, and it has lost for the first time – 2.683 billion yuan. In the first quarter of this year, 7 of the 10 listed companies had negative cash flow.

The reporter adopted the Z-score model (when the Z value is greater than 2.99, it shows that there is no bankruptcy risk; when the Z value is less than 1.8, it indicates that the company has a higher bankruptcy risk; when the Z value is between 1.8 and 2.99, it is called The "gray area" indicates that the company's financial status is not ideal and there is a certain degree of bankruptcy risk.) Through the calculation of relevant data for the 2011 annual report and the 2012 quarterly report of 10 listed companies such as Sany Heavy Industry and Zoomlion, the average annual report shows that The Z value is 3.45, which means that it is in a financial security zone as a whole. However, the first quarterly results of 10 companies were not satisfactory in 2012. The average Z value was only 2.21. Although it was larger than the critical value of 1.8, it was still in the “grey area” between 1.8 and 2.99, indicating that the overall financial situation was worrying. It is worth mentioning that the financial status of the Big Three has all entered the “gray area”. The Z values ​​of Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, and XCMG are 2.95, 2.43 and 2.12 respectively.

The boom in infrastructure investment has made the industry more fortunate. The policies that have been introduced in succession are expected to become an important element in dressing up the next financial statements of these listed companies. In late May, the executive meeting of the State Council once again clearly put “steady growth” in an important position, implemented the major projects of the “12th Five-Year Plan” on time, and started a batch of projects that are related to the overall situation and are highly motivated.

The reporter learned that as of now, including Jiangsu and Guangdong, many provinces across the country are paying close attention to the construction of key projects in this province, and they have collectively approved a batch of large projects. In this regard, some analysts expect the construction machinery industry is expected to usher in the warmer in June. However, Wang Hexu, a senior analyst in the construction machinery industry interviewed by reporters, said that although the support of the national policy for infrastructure investment has a positive impact, the degree is only a phased one. “It is only a matter of speeding up the review and approval of infrastructure projects. The piece of the trial was now approved." In his opinion, the aforementioned favorable policies may, to some extent, improve the cash flow of listed companies in construction machinery, but it is difficult to improve the overall financial situation. He expects the entire industry to reverse its recovery, or wait until 2014.

Analyst Lu Juan told reporters that the priority is to select leading enterprises. The recommended order is Zoomlion, Sany Heavy Industry, Xugong Machinery, Liugong (000528, closing price of 13.94 yuan) and Anhui Heli (600761, stocks) (600761, closing). The price is 12.73). In addition, other second-tier companies may have a limited growth rate this year.