enghua Jade Motor Co., Ltd. , http://www.nsoutboardmotor.com
On July 1, this year, the National III emission standards will be fully implemented in the country. The impact on the commercial vehicle market is not comparable to that of the passenger vehicle market. With technological leapfrogging, huge investment, and market promotion, the commercial vehicle market in 2008 is still changing.
Imported State III core technology, independent research and development road more distant
The transition from emission technology standard country II to country III is not only a leap from the engine to the electronic engine, but also the key to the entire vehicle technology components and assemblies such as fuel injection systems, electrical systems, and intake and exhaust systems. All-round upgrade of technology.
Due to the late start of China's auto industry and relatively weak independent research and development capabilities, domestic heavy-duty auto companies almost exclusively chose to cooperate with foreign companies or directly use them for my own purposes.
Since the issuance of the National III emission standard in 2005, the research and development of the National III technology cooperation centered on the engine has mushroomed in China. Three platforms of CA6DE4, CA6SF3, and CA4DC2 jointly produced by FAW Dachai and Deutz, Zhaoxiang imported NGD 3.0 diesel engine, Turbocharged intercooled series diesel engine, Weichai Lanqing series, Cummins electronic control ISLe. Series and BGI natural gas engines, as well as Shangchai, Yangchai, Yuchai, and so on, have all achieved standard III products. Companies such as Jianghuai, Futian, Shuai Ling, and Oumac have already launched new products on the market one after another. Liberation, Dongfeng, and Heavy Duty Truck have begun to replace them through their own technological innovations. Hualing, Geerfa, Huizhong and other emerging forces are more confident.
The person in charge of Zhongtong Bus Co., Ltd., which introduced European advanced passenger car production technology, frankly stated in an interview with our correspondent: “The implementation of the national III emission standard currently has no technical problems for Zhongtong, and more is in marketing. aspect."
Of course, not all companies are so confident. "There are not many models on the market that truly meet the National III standard," said Chen Shuanglian, general manager of Dongguan Jiangling Motors Trading Co., Ltd.. As far as the light truck market is concerned, the products that can provide national standards for the light truck market include Jiangling, Qingling and Yangcheng. Some of the businesses are also State III products with fewer models.
Even there are many diesel commercial vehicle companies that are not joint ventures and have a weak technical foundation. The core technology of State III products is still unavailable. As a result, the overall performance of State III diesel vehicles produced by enterprises is poor, and fuel consumption is lower than that of the country. II products are about 5% to 20% higher, resulting in the problem of “not reducing energy consumptionâ€. Experts are even worried that there will be a sneaking phenomenon in the market and shoddy goods.
Costs pull up prices, demand eases
The high cost of the State III commercial vehicle has driven the price increase to become the focus.
"The implementation of the National III emission standards has a great impact on heavy truck companies." China National Heavy Duty Truck experts also analyzed that the State III products have increased the cost of heavy truck production companies by about 20%. It is expected that the heavy truck products will increase by 20,000 to 60,000 yuan, an increase of 10% to 15%. With the increase in steel prices in 2008, the prices of raw materials such as rubber and glass have generally risen, and monetary tightening will inevitably squeeze profit margins. In February, Foton Motor's listing press conference launched Ruiwo, the era King Kong Series III new products, the price has increased more than 20,000 yuan over the old car. Experts predict that the market price of commercial vehicles will only rise by 20,000 to 100,000 yuan, due to only one national III standard.
In addition to the cost and sales pressure brought by the National III Standard, many companies will also face enormous pressure to clean up the National II inventory in the first half of the year. As a result, the price of the country II has been reduced, and the national III pattern promotion has been launched. The 2008 price war has already begun.
Our reporter learned from Zhongtong Bus Co., Ltd. that marketing is the main issue facing them this year. Zhongtong’s strategy for the domestic market is “progressive and smooth transitionâ€; for overseas markets, it is actively exploring to expand sales.
As for the sales status, Zhongtong further disclosed that due to the impact of prices and the implementation of State III, there was considerable sales of State III countries in March, and the demand for State III was flat. The sales momentum of State II was more important than that of State III, and the northern market was better than the southern market. foot.
Of course, there are also optimists in the industry: China's economic development in 2008 continues to grow rapidly, and the overall demand for the commercial vehicle market remains strong.
Statistics on the production and sales of commercial vehicles show that although the overall production and sales volume fell slightly in January this year compared to January, it was still substantially higher than the same period of last year. In February, the number of passenger cars sold was 20,300, an increase of 10.91% year-on-year, and the number of trucks sold was 154,400, a year-on-year increase of 27.94%.
Lagging lag, damage to emission reduction benefits
If we go to the country III, the core technology has been basically solved, and the market demand space is still there, then there are two bottlenecks caused by the industry experts: the level of after-sales service and the adaptability of diesel oil.
Due to the special fuel supply system of the State III diesel engine, a considerable period of time needs to be concentrated in the 4S shop maintenance. The maintenance workload of the 4S shop will be doubled, and the service stations that fully grasp the diagnostic capabilities of the China III model will be less than 5%. The after-sales service system needs to build and improve the process. How long it will take for this period of time, the absence of a national III vehicle after sale will inevitably hinder the implementation of the standard.
Closely related to advanced diesel technology is the oil configuration problem. The shortage of large-scale diesel that appeared earlier in the past period has shown that the supply of oil products is seriously inadequate, let alone guarantee the matching of quality. According to the production conditions of Sinopec and PetroChina, it is expected that the National III diesel can be fully supplied nationwide at the end of 2009. At present, it can only meet the supply needs of Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shanghai. In this way, for quite a long time, the quality of the new type of diesel engine and diesel oil is inconsistent and there is a gap. The industry generally believes that fuel and vehicles are fragmented in time and space and lack rationality.
In the interim period, whether the State III vehicle can drink the National II oil, the controversy in the industry continues. On this issue, the reporter interviewed Mr. Wang Liangyu, an oil product expert: “To ensure that the state meets the discharge standards, we must ensure that the automobile factory is set to deliver a stable discharge; if the car oil does not match, it will inevitably damage the emission reduction benefit!†He did not match the car oil. Not only fuel consumption, emissions exceeded, and damage to the locomotive expressed its approval.
"The lag in deployment is serious, and to a certain extent, China's III emission reduction targets have become empty talk," said Mr. Wang Liangxi, worriedly.
Commercial vehicles are about to use the energy-saving and emission-reducing emission of the National III standard. On July 1, it is only the beginning. It is a long-term and difficult task.