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Methanol investment tends to be overheated——A review of the 2004 domestic chemical market situation (5)
In 2004, how many domestic methanol projects are under construction and under construction in the country is estimated to be difficult to say clearly. However, the information released by the media in succession can still be seen that the investment in methanol projects that have been formed nationwide has continued to develop in the direction of overheating this year. Some experts estimate roughly that the total annual production scale of the project to be built in the country is already approaching 10 million tons, far exceeding the demand. Analysing domestic methanol projects under construction, the annual production scale can be roughly divided into two categories: one category is represented by 600,000 tons, but only a very small number; the other is represented by 100,000-200,000 tons. most. In addition, the annual output of individual projects exceeds 600,000 tons, and the annual production scale of some projects is less than 100,000 tons. It is not difficult to see that the scale of the project to be built in China is generally still too small. If new production capacity is brought into play, the domestic market will surely witness a mixed-race situation, and a large number of newly-built installations may face production suspension soon after they are put into operation. At that time, there may be some new devices that may not even be put into production because the products may not be sold at all. This is by no means alarmist. From an international perspective, in recent years, the world's methanol projects are expected to further increase in size. The starting point scale is mostly above one million tons, and the sales target directly points to the Chinese market. Objectively speaking, the new methanol project in China compares itself with itself. This year, the scale of the methanol project has also become increasingly large. However, compared with the international level, our so-called large-scale projects are still very small; most of the domestic installations are more similar to small workshops. With bulk basic materials such as methanol, the equipment cannot reach a considerable scale, and it is difficult for companies to win in the increasingly fierce market competition. From the perspective of the domestic market, in the past, the shortage of supply of methanol in the past, after the expansion of energy in recent years, China's imports have decreased in recent years. With the increase in the total supply of domestic methanol, the competition in the domestic market has been basically established this year. It is true that the impact of domestically produced methanol on the domestic market has been unprecedented this year, and it can influence the direction of foreign goods in the domestic market from time to time. However, the increase in the supply capacity of domestic methanol, past and present, mainly comes from numerous small devices distributed throughout the country. Due to the fact that the scale of the new project is still not fundamentally improved, it is estimated that for a long period of time, the new supply of domestic methanol will still come mainly from the numerous small devices distributed throughout the country. Small plants that bloom all over the place will not have any problems in surviving when the market is seriously short of supplies. However, if supply and demand develop in the direction of surplus, it may be problematic to live. On the whole, the methanol market in the domestic market has been relatively stable despite frequent fluctuations this year. However, if investment continues to develop in the direction of overheating, small projects continue to bloom, and foreign goods are widely watched. Perhaps sometime in the future, the market situation will deteriorate, and it will be a long time since then.