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Like other new energy sub-industries such as photovoltaics, new energy vehicles are at this stage an industry that cannot rely on their own profitability and rely heavily on government subsidies. In this government-led industry, high-level attitudes influence the introduction of relevant policies, which will affect the development of the industry.
Than Policy: Breaking Local Protectionism
The high price is one of the important factors restricting car sales. The landing of the new subsidy policy is conducive to eliminating obstacles in this regard.
Based on the considerations of China's transportation energy strategy transformation and the management of smog and other environmental aspects, the development of new energy vehicles has been elevated to the national strategy by the highest decision-making level in the central government. Since the second half of 2013, the government has introduced a series of new energy vehicle industry promotion plans and new subsidy policies. In September of that year, the Ministry of Finance and other four ministries issued notices to continue the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles; in February 2014, the list of second batch of new energy vehicle promotion demonstration cities was announced; 12 cities including Shenyang and Changchun were added; July 2014 The State Council proposed exemption of vehicle purchase tax, and then stipulated that government agencies and public agencies must purchase new energy vehicles for more than 30% of the total amount of equipment to be replenished in that year. According to the government’s annual budget of 10 billion yuan, the annual purchase volume of new energy vehicles will reach 30. Billion.
With the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles and the demonstration effect of the government, new energy vehicles will enter a period of rapid development.
China has officially started the development strategy for new energy vehicles since 2009, but sales have been lower than expected in the past few years. In addition to the unsatisfactory battery life and inconvenient charging of new energy vehicles, high prices are also an important factor restricting car sales. The new subsidy policy Landing helps eliminate obstacles in this area.
In addition, in the previous round of financial subsidy policy, local protection was serious. New rounds of subsidy required details such as disbursement methods, which greatly weakened local protection, which would be beneficial to the promotion of advantageous new energy auto manufacturers nationwide.
In 2013, when there were nine months of subsidizing the window period, domestic sales of new energy vehicles reached 17,604 vehicles, which was still a year-on-year increase of 37.9%. According to current regional plans, Beijing and Shenzhen plans to promote new energy vehicles separately in 2013-2015. 3.5 Ten thousand vehicles will be promoted in Guangzhou and Shanghai respectively, and 5,000 vehicles will be promoted in other cities and regions in the next two years. About 200,000 new energy vehicles will be promoted in the next two years. According to the current annual sales of 20,000 vehicles, if the plan can be completed, the future domestic sales of new energy vehicles will appear geometric growth.
Than technology: The battery is the "heart"
The outbreak of the new energy automotive industry will have a significant pull on battery companies, lithium battery materials, and resource supporting companies in the industrial chain.
In the manufacturing process, batteries, motors and electrical controls belong to the core assembly of electric vehicles. At present, the battery and motor of most electric vehicle manufacturers in China rely on outsourcing, and the electronic control system is usually independently developed or jointly developed because it involves vehicle control. Due to the extreme importance of these three systems, suppliers who can provide such system assemblies to automakers have a very high discourse power and can directly collaborate with OEMs to jointly share the development feast of new energy vehicles.
In the three core systems of new energy vehicles, the battery technology is the most distinguishable from traditional fuel vehicles, and it is also the commanding point of the industry technology. At this stage, the mainstream application of new energy vehicle batteries is lithium, and other fuel cells and so on.
From the perspective of the industrial chain, lithium batteries go up one layer, including positive electrodes, negative electrodes, electrolytes, separators, and other materials. The capital market has also been focusing on this field in the excavation of the new energy automotive industrial chain. In the lithium battery cost, the battery occupies most of the cost, while the positive electrode material in the battery occupies 48% of the cost, and the negative electrode, separator, and electrolyte occupy about 12%, 14%, and 9% of the cost, respectively. Upstream of the battery materials are lithium carbonate, graphite, rare earth permanent magnets and other resource products.
As China's new energy vehicles take the "pure electric drive" line, lithium batteries occupy the absolute mainstream. Regarding the types of lithium batteries, lithium manganese dioxide or ternary materials are the main batteries in foreign countries, and lithium iron phosphate batteries are the main products in China. Both have their advantages and disadvantages.
From the perspective of the market share of power lithium batteries, Japanese and Korean companies account for the vast majority, LG Chem, Japan AESC, Japan Yuasa, Panasonic and other companies account for about 60% of the global market share. Power lithium battery manufacturers with strong domestic strength include BYD, Tianjin Lishen, Shenzhen BAK, Pride, Guoxuan Hi-Tech and so on. The listed companies involved include Wanxiang Qianchao, CITIC Guoan, Chengfei Integration, and Xinke Materials.
More than matching: charging piles are difficult to profit in the short term
The relationship between new energy vehicles and charging and swapping facilities is just like the question of “chicken or egg firstâ€. New energy vehicles and charging piles are mutually necessary and sufficient.
Due to the fact that China's new energy vehicles have not scaled up before, and the initial investment cost of the charging and replacement facilities is huge, it is difficult to realize profitability in the short term. The construction of charging and exchanging facilities has been lower than expected. Prior to this, only state-owned enterprises such as State Grid, China Southern Power Grid, China Putian, and Sinopec Corp. have considered charging for power-consumption construction investment from the overall strategic perspective. In the competitive pattern of the central enterprises, the national power grid holds the absolute right to speak, mainly because of its monopoly on capacity expansion. If any unit needs more capacity, it must apply to the State Grid for transformer configuration to expand capacity.
However, under the multi-party promotion of the mixed ownership reform of state-owned enterprises and the country's new energy strategy, in May 2014, the State Grid released “Opinions on the completion of the telegram installation service for new energy vehicle charging and replacing facilitiesâ€, and announced the release of social capital investment. , Construction and operation of slow charge, fast charge and other types of charge exchange facilities market. In the short term, the market liberalization will mainly promote the demand for self-use charging piles in residential areas, which will increase the demand for related equipment. The companies that currently produce related charging equipment in the A-share market include XJ Electric, Wanma, Aotexun and KSTAR.
However, in the largest public sector, the charging stations invested and built by the State Grid and other companies are currently at a loss. After the investment and development in this field, its profit model is still unclear. In order to nurture this market, the government will need to introduce specific policies on electricity price formulation, taxation, and financing. Otherwise, social capital will only stay at the wait-and-see stage.
Than the market: all manufacturers seize the market
In 2013, the performance of new energy vehicles represented by Tesla achieved breakthrough progress. Since its launch, it has been a great success. At that time, global sales exceeded 22,000 vehicles. In June 2014, Tesla announced the opening of all patented technologies, which means that the overall technology of the new energy automotive industry is expected to increase.
In addition to Tesla, there will be more than 10 models of electric vehicles to be listed in China from 2014 to 2015. These cars are all launched by famous manufacturers such as BMW, Volkswagen, Audi, Mercedes-Benz and BYD. For example, BMW i3, Daimler and BYD have joint ventures. Teng potential is expected to be listed in September, as well as BMW i8, Cadillac ELR, Audi R8, Toyota FT-EVIII, Volkswagen E-UP and Golf Electric Edition.