Wind power industry enters deep adjustment period

According to some media reports, Dongfang Electric, the world's largest manufacturer of power station equipment, is currently nearing zero in its second main business fan assembly, from 1,800 sets during the peak period to 25 sets in the first quarter of this year, compared with last year's data. It is 949 sets. The report also stated that there are more than 500 sets of Dongfang Electric's existing wind turbine inventory, plus hundreds of sets of wind turbine components for a large number of upstream component suppliers who have not confirmed the pick-up, and there are a large number of "in vitro stocks" and corresponding liabilities have not yet been confirmed. confirm.

The report also disclosed that Dongfang Electric's decline in its wind power business was due to the fact that the independent research and development of its technical solutions was not enough. Many suppliers were brewing to prompt Dongfang Electric to take delivery of the goods. When this news came out, Dongfang Electric evaporated nearly 3.6 billion yuan in market value on the day.

In the face of doubts, Dongfang Electric issued a clarification announcement in the evening of June 28, saying that the company has made an outlook for wind power business development in the 2011 annual report: “Despite the increasingly intensified competition in the wind power industry, wind power demand will continue to maintain a certain degree of growth during adjustment. "The current view is still maintained. In addition, Dongfang Electric wind power product structure is becoming more and more perfect, product technology has been widely recognized by users, product quality and stability.

Dongfang Electric further pointed out that the company's production and operation of wind power products were normal. In the first quarter of 2012, wind power products realized sales revenue of 1.566 billion yuan, an increase of 11.85% year-on-year; new orders for wind power were 1.55 billion yuan, an increase of 150%; wind power product gross margin remained stable It is expected that there will be no risk of significant impairment.

High stocks are financial rules conservative?

On June 29th, Dongfang Electric explained to this reporter: “The wind turbines used to generate electricity for 240 hours before confirming revenue. This output appeared to be a little less in the first quarter, but the annual output was uneven and did not mean The production in the first quarter represents the level of the whole year.” For the issue of the large number of stocks reported by the media, the person stated: “The phenomenon that there is no inventory in the wind turbines is produced according to a single order, and the production cycle is relatively short. Production is an output. In the process of shipment, shipment, and installation, sales revenue and production output are two concepts. Income is a financial indicator and output is a statistical indicator. The two are different.

In this regard, an analyst told this reporter: "Dongfang Electric's financial laws are more conservative, the company's overall business really adopted the principle of prudent confirmation, that is, less than the installation of wind farms inventory, so high."

From the disclosure of Dongfang Electric's annual report, the total output of 2007-2011 wind turbines was approximately 6.4 GW, achieving a total sales revenue of 24.9 billion yuan. According to calculations of Guo Jin Securities analysts Xing Zhigang and Zhang Shuai, it is estimated that Dongfang Electric's historical average price for wind turbines is 4,500 yuan/kW, which results in a difference in the company's 2007-2011 output value and sales revenue of about 4 billion yuan. The main reason for this discrepancy is that the company has adopted prudent revenue recognition principles for the quality of the wind power industry, rather than the large inventories described by the media.

“On the one hand, the proportion of quality problems for Dongfang Electric's wind turbines is less than 5%, which is basically the same as that of wind power generators, which is 3-5 percent of the total. This is according to the 2011 report issued by the China Electricity Regulatory Commission on wind power safety and the industry association’s release. According to the wind power quality report, the quality of Dongfang Electric's wind turbines did not show any obvious disadvantage compared with other competitors in the industry.” Xing Zhigang and Zhang Shuai further analyzed, “But in the medium to long term, the real concerns of the market for the company also include the growth of electricity demand. The pessimistic expectations of the downturn, the uncertainty of nuclear power planning and the negative impact on the export caused by the poor global economic environment; the decline in orders is expected to be the main reason for continued weakening of valuation.

A number of wind power companies have slowed their pace. After Goldwind Technology's newly installed capacity dropped for the first time in 2011, and its operating profit decreased by 74.06% year-on-year, the company's first quarter report showed that new orders were only about 400-500 megawatts, which is the same as sales volume.

According to statistics, as of June 26, the two cities involved in wind power listed companies, 14 have disclosed the first half of the performance forecast, only 5 are expected to grow year-on-year, compared with 9 companies expected to decline year-on-year results Among them, industry leading gold wind technology, Huarui Wind Power all expect net profit in the first half of the year to fall by more than 50% year-on-year.

Performance forecast shows that Goldwind expects net profit for January-June 2012 to decline by 50%-100% from the same period of last year, mainly due to the slowdown in the growth of the wind power industry, intensified market competition, and lower wind turbine prices. Sinovel Wind also expects its first-half net profit to decline by more than 50% year-on-year. Following the termination of the reorganization of wind power projects in August last year, China Avionics Heavy Machinery announced last month that it intends to list and transfer 90% of the shares of its subsidiary, CNAC Longteng Wind Power Co., Ltd., and listed companies such as Goldwind and Huayi Electric also disclosed winds in the near future. Electronic company equity transfer plan.

According to the statistics released by the Wind Energy Professional Committee of the Chinese Renewable Energy Society, about 10 billion kilowatt-hours of wind power was restricted throughout the country in 2011, creating the highest historical value. At the same time, according to the statistics of the China Electricity Regulatory Commission, in 2011 some winds in some provinces and cities in China were abandoned by winds at about 20%, and some wind resources in the “Three Norths” were over 30%, direct economic losses amounted to nearly 10 billion yuan, and wind power was eliminated. Nasdaq has always been an urgent issue to be solved in the sound development of the wind power industry.

On March 19 this year, the National Energy Administration issued the Notice on Printing and Distributing the Second Batch of Wind Power Project Approval Plans for the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, approving the wind power project at 16.76 million kilowatts, which is less than the first batch of approved projects of 28.83 million kilowatts. In half, a number of demonstration projects for wind power heating, wind power direct thermal power generation, and wind power thermal power combined operation were conducted. In April, the National Energy Administration’s “Notice on Strengthening the Requirements for Wind Power Integration and Abatement” stated that the The total amount of wind-reduction and wind-reduction of wind power in the country exceeded 10 billion kilowatt hours, and the average utilization hours have been greatly reduced. This is seen by many people in the industry as a sign of slowing down in the wind power industry.

Xing Zhigang believes that wind power is still subject to access bottlenecks in terms of demand. Although the wind power access standard and renewable energy quota system that will be implemented in June this year will gradually promote investment in wind power access, the final mitigation will still take 1-2 years.

In addition, offshore wind power, which has previously been considered to have a huge market, has also made slow progress. China plans to increase the total installed capacity of offshore wind power to 5,000 megawatts by 2015, and this scale will increase to 30,000 megawatts by 2020. However, the first phase of offshore wind power bidding has not been approved so far and was originally scheduled for The second tender at the end of last year has not yet reached news.

Experts believe that wind power investment companies in China have experienced considerable financial pressure in 2011 due to factors such as wind speed approval slowdown and access bottlenecks. The wind power equipment manufacturing industry has the problem of low industrial concentration. Industrial resources have not been optimally allocated and used effectively. Technological R&D and manufacturing capabilities have not yet been able to meet the needs of wind power development. Wind power industry investment should be planned in an integrated and orderly manner.