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Zhang Xiaozheng, vice president of the China Federation of Machinery Industry, analyzed in recent days that the current auto market has only experienced a decline in the growth rate. The development of “blow-out†has disappeared. In fact, the market is still moving forward. He predicts that the total increase in car production this year will only reach 20%, instead of the 30% that was originally expected; the car is expected to grow by about 40%, compared with 80% last year. There are no problems with the production of 2.5 million cars this year.
Zhang Xiaoxuan said: China has carried out five major macro-controls in the past. The facts show that each macro-control has brought great influence on the production and sales of automobiles. According to him, during the first macro-control period from 1979 to 1981, the annual automobile production dropped from 220,000 to 170,000 vehicles, a large drop; the second was from 1985 to 1986, with an annual output of 440,000 vehicles. It dropped to 370,000; the third time was 1988-1989. The annual production dropped from 640,000 to 500,000 vehicles. The fourth time from 1994 to 1998, there was no large-scale decline in vehicle output, but the increase decreased, and it was between 2.5% and 5%; 1998-2002 In the year, the state carried out expansionary adjustments, mainly to expand domestic demand, and the automobile industry experienced a rapid growth of blowouts. In recent years, the average growth rate of the automotive industry reached 30%-40%.
Zhang Xiaolu believes that after the first four adjustments, the autos have all drastically reduced their production, and they are injuring the entire industry. From last year to now, there are actually some local tightening adjustments, but with the first five times the capacity, the impact of the auto industry this time will not be as big as the previous few. Moreover, the current automobile market structure is also different from the past. Therefore, we must not only see difficulties but also increase confidence in this macro-control.