Since November, the cumulative growth rate of the air transportation sector has been 18.18%. Specifically, out of the five constituent stocks, with the exception of CITIC Direct, the cumulative gains of the other four stocks have exceeded 20%, and the performance is very eye-catching: Eastern Airlines. (42.05%), China Southern Airlines (31.01%), Air China (27.15%) and Hainan Airlines (24.89%).
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Analysts said that the current strong performance of the air transport sector has four major positive impacts: First, the continuous decline in oil prices has significantly reduced the cost of air transport companies; recent oil prices usher in a rare “eight losing streak,†due to the international oil prices in the near future. Still continue to oscillate, the overall low, many institutions do not optimistic about the future trend of oil prices, which will further stimulate the market performance of listed companies in the air transport category.
Second, the renminbi has brought exchange gains. Domestic airlines are heavily loaded with US dollar liabilities. The financial costs are highly sensitive to the renminbi exchange rate against the U.S. dollar and U.S. interest rates. In the first half of 2014, the depreciation of the renminbi against the U.S. dollar caused exchange losses for the entire industry. It has reached 2.7 billion yuan, which has become one of the important factors that have dragged down the performance of the industry. However, the exchange rate of the renminbi against the US dollar is now picking up, and the performance of the aviation industry may improve in the second half of the year.
Third, the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect officially opened on November 17 to stimulate the rise of the aviation sector. Air China, Southern Airlines, and Eastern Airlines are Shanghai-Hong Kong stocks that include both A-shares and H-shares. In addition, the overall valuation of the aviation sector is relatively low and it is also more vulnerable to the preference of international capital.
Fourth, the impact of interest rate cuts, a number of experts said that the central bank cut interest rates is not an occasional rate cut, but indicates that our interest rate cut cycle has just begun. According to public data, the debt ratio of domestic airlines is generally above 70%, with RMB liabilities accounting for an average of 30%. The interest rate cut will directly increase the future performance of the airline.
With good fundamentals and 2014 performance expected to exceed expectations, various funds have also come in. Yesterday, net inflows of four airline stocks surpassed 200 million yuan. Specifically, Hainan Airlines (301 million yuan). Yuan), Air China (273 million yuan), Eastern Airlines (270 million yuan) and China Southern Airlines (2.66 billion yuan).
Comprehensive analysis of the company's fundamentals, performance, brokerage research from multiple angles, Southern Airlines is the most worthy of long-term attention. The company is the airline with the largest number of domestic transport aircraft, the most dense route network, and the largest number of passengers to be carried in the year. It is worth mentioning that on November 20th, the company issued an announcement saying that the Zhuhai Helicopter Co., Ltd. was reformed and a wholly-owned subsidiary, China Southern Airlines General Aviation Co., Ltd. was established.