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The coal industry has experienced rapid development during the “10th Five-Year Plan†period, and will continue to enjoy a smooth and rapid development in 2006. According to the latest statistics from China Coal Industry Association, coal supply and demand are basically balanced in the first 10 months of this year, and coal production has increased steadily. The economic benefits of the industry have continued to increase. Since entering the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, the country has adjusted its mining policy and focused on establishing a new mechanism and a new system for mining management to fully regulate and enhance the overall level of China’s mining development. As an important support for China’s mining industry and a pilot industry for mining reform, the coal industry has begun to enter a critical period of accelerating economic restructuring and transforming the mode of economic growth. At the national coal industry commendation conference held on November 28th, the first vice president of the China Coal Industry Association, Ji Hongji reminded: “The coal industry must calmly and objectively view the current excellent situation, strengthen industry self-discipline, lay a solid foundation for development, and strictly control production capacity. , continue to promote the healthy and orderly development of the coal industry."
Many people in the nightmare of coal economic depression a few years ago may still be fresh in their memory, and “fortunately the pain is forgotten,†and it is also a common problem among the people. Indeed, there are some indications that after rapid growth in recent years, coal market demand has slowed down, industrial policy adjustments have been accelerating, and the industry is facing excess capacity and rising costs, as well as multiple pressures on resources and the environment. Some analysts believe that the development of China's coal industry faces three major obstacles.
Demand for coal has slowed and pressure on excess capacity has increased
According to relevant agencies' forecasts, the world economy will enter a cyclical adjustment in 2007, and the economic and trade growth rate will slow down significantly. Among them, the economic growth rate in the euro zone is about 1.5%. The Japanese economy will be slowed by the appreciation of the yen and the lagging oil prices. In particular, as the engine of world economic growth, the economic growth rate has slowed down significantly. . Some experts predict that next year is very likely to be the turning point of this round of downward adjustment of the world economy.
At present, China's economy still maintains stable and rapid growth, and growth mainly depends on increasing investment and exports. The economic growth rate of the United States and the European Union, which account for more than 40% of China's export share, will surely have a major impact on China's economy. In order to adapt to the development and changes in the international economic situation and maintain the steady development of China's national economy, the design of the national macro-control policy will be more rational, targeted, and the implementation of control will be significantly improved. Relevant departments expect that in 2007 the total fixed asset investment in the whole society will increase by about 22%, which is 5 percentage points lower than that in 2006. The demand for the national economy and important raw materials will obviously decline, and the growth of coal consumption demand will further slow down.
From the current development trend of the main coal consumption industry, the key industries of the national economy such as electricity, metallurgy, building materials, and chemical industries have maintained a good momentum of economic growth, and output has continued to increase, driving coal demand to continue to grow, but the trend of slower growth is even more pronounced.
The power industry has seen continued growth in power consumption since the beginning of this year. The power supply capacity has continued to increase, the tension in power supply and demand has eased, the country’s power shortage has been reduced, and the degree of power shortage has been significantly reduced. In the first three quarters, the national power generation amounted to 2011.116 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%, and the accumulated new production capacity was more than 60 million kilowatts. The average utilization hours of power generation equipment was 3,923 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 182 hours, of which the accumulated average utilization hours of thermal power equipment was 4,204 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 210 hours.
It is estimated that the newly installed capacity in China will exceed 80 million kilowatts in 2006. Judging from the current state-approved power supply projects, the scale of power generation installed capacity in 2007 is still very high. It is estimated that the annual installed capacity will be in the range of 70 million to 80 million kilowatts. By the end of 2007, the installed capacity of electric power in the country will approach 700 million kilowatts. The nation’s electricity supply and demand situation will shift from a power shortage to a basic balance. Most power grids will have excess supply, and excess capacity will begin to appear. As the thermal power load still has a substantial increase, the total demand for electric coal in the country continues to grow. However, with the further adjustment of the power industry structure, advancement in science and technology, and energy conservation, the further reduction in power generation energy consumption, the actual increase in the demand for electric coal is more than expected. Medium to low.
In the first three quarters of this year, the steel industry produced 30,843.78 million tons of crude steel, a year-on-year increase of 18.45%, a total of 297,457,700 tons of pig iron, a year-on-year increase of 20.83%, and a total of 339,304,900 tons of steel, a year-on-year increase of 23.66%. By the end of September, the domestic market crude steel consumption was 28,725,000 tons, an increase of 28.75 million tons over the same period of last year, an increase of 10.5%. According to statistics, in the first eight months of this year, the iron and steel industry added 6.473 million tons of new ironmaking capacity, 3.62 million tons of steelmaking capacity, and another 2,074 projects under construction. The overcapacity is intensifying. According to relevant predictions, the country's crude steel production in 2006 will reach 410 million to 420 million tons. In 2007, crude steel production will reach 460 million tons, and steel output will reach 505 million tons, an increase of about 11%. However, due to the structural adjustment and technological advancement of the steel industry, a large number of backward production capacity will gradually be eliminated, coal consumption per ton of steel will decline, and coal demand will not increase substantially. Recently, relevant departments have questioned the large amount of exports of steel products, coke, and other products, arguing that China’s large export of high-energy products such as steel and coke have outweighed the benefits. It is not in line with China’s resource conditions, nor does it comply with China’s sustainable development strategy, and even conceals it. The production capacity greatly increases the hidden risks. If the country further adjusts the steel industry policy and exports are limited, the problem of excess capacity in the steel industry will become more prominent and will directly affect coal consumption.
In the first three quarters of the building materials industry, cement production reached 87,155,900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.7%, and flat glass production was 293.9926 million weight cases, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%. The growth rate of building ceramics, deep-processing glass, gypsum board, refractories, stone processing and brick and tile production all exceeded or close to 30%. According to relevant departments' forecast, the total cement output this year will exceed 1.2 billion tons, an increase of about 13%; the total output of flat glass will reach 410 million weight boxes, an increase of about 10%. From the perspective of the international cement market, the demand for international cement market has grown rapidly this year, which has driven the rapid growth of China's cement exports. In the first three quarters, it exported a total of 7.9 million tons, which exceeded the cement export volume in 2004. However, due to the state's reduction of export tax rebates from 13% to 11%, it will affect the export volume of cement next year. It is expected that the growth rate of cement demand will gradually slow down in 2007, coupled with the successive production of new dry process cement production lines in the past two years, coal consumption has dropped significantly, and the demand for coal in the building materials industry is basically stable.
At the end of September, the chemical industry produced 32.851 million tons of coke, an increase of 16.7% year-on-year; the amount of agricultural chemical fertilizer was 38.0228 million tons, an increase of 12.1% year-on-year, and the proportion of coal-toe ammonia increased. Most of the coal chemical products, such as methanol, dimethyl ether and coal-to-oil projects, are under construction and it is difficult to form large-scale production capacity in the short-term, which will have little impact on coal demand in the chemical industry next year.
Imports of coal from coal import and export increased and exports decreased. The supply of domestic coal resources increased, and domestic coal supply pressure increased. In the first 10 months, China’s coal exports totaled 52.49 million tons, a decrease of 13.6%; imports reached 29.39 million tons, an increase of 42%; net coal exports amounted to 23.1 million tons, a decrease of 16.51 million tons, a decrease of 41.7% year-on-year, correspondingly increasing the supply of coal in the domestic market. the amount. With the introduction of the national policy of "removing coal export tax rebates and expropriating export tariffs," it will affect the enthusiasm of coal export enterprises to a greater extent, and coal exports will further decline, which will surely have a certain impact on the domestic coal market.
Based on a comprehensive analysis of the coal consumption situation, coal demand in the power industry will continue to grow moderately in 2007, and there will be little change in the demand for coal in the iron and steel and building materials industries. It is expected that the national coal demand increase will be around 150 million tons next year.
From the perspective of coal production capacity construction, driven by the inertia and interests of demand in the past few years, the construction of coal production capacity has been accelerated, and blind investment and blind construction problems are still outstanding. The investment in fixed assets of coal has experienced rapid growth for more than five years. The construction scale of coal mines has continuously expanded and production capacity has increased rapidly. With the coal mines constructed in previous years, the production scale will be released in concentration in the next few years.
Statistics show that from 2001 to October 2006, the coal washing industry has completed a total investment of 300.5 billion yuan in fixed assets, and the absolute amount of investment is 55.5 billion yuan more than the total investment in the first five “five-year plansâ€. According to relevant statistics, there are currently 1,563 coal mine projects under construction in the country, with a total size of 653 million tons. Together with reconstruction, expansion and resource integration, the total production capacity totals about 830 million tons, which exceeds the 580 million tons determined by the coal industry's "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" scale. The scale of construction. The total production capacity of existing coal mines and the scale under construction has reached 3 billion tons, far exceeding the planned target of about 2.5 billion tons of coal demand by 2010. The pressure of coal overcapacity is becoming increasingly apparent.
Adjustment of coal industry policy and increasing cost pressure for enterprises <br> This year is the year when the country has issued the largest number of coal economic policies and the largest effort. Because of its wide coverage, large adjustments in policies, and increased coal cost increase and expenditure factors, business operations are facing New pressures and challenges.
First, the cost of coal resources has increased. The state implements a paid use system for coal resources. The State Council recently decided that in the future, the newly established mining rights, except for special regulations, will be obtained through competitive bidding, auction, and listing. Regarding the mineral rights that have been obtained by the company for free in the past and contributed by the state, whether or not they have already been transferred to the state capital funds, they shall pay the mining rights price according to the remaining reserves.
The second is to increase the coal resource tax rate. Since 2004, the relevant departments have successively adjusted the standards for coal resources taxation in major coal-producing provinces (regions). By April this year, there have been 18 coal-producing provinces (regions) in the country that have increased their coal resource tax rates. Before adjustment, RMB 0.3/ton to RMB 1.2/ton was increased to RMB 2.5/ton to RMB 4/ton, and tons of coal were increased to RMB 2.2/ton to RMB 2.8/ton.
Third, relevant departments are studying the adjustment of the standards for the collection of mineral resources compensation fees.
Fourth, in September of this year, the state cancelled the preferential tax rebate for coal exports and imposed a 5% tariff on coal exports.
Fifth, the country is working to establish a coal mine environmental governance and ecological restoration responsibility mechanism.
Sixth, in accordance with the “Pilot Opinions on the Pilot Project for the Sustainable Development of Coal Industry in Shanxi Province†approved by the State Council, it is planned to establish a coal sustainable development fund and a coal mine conversion and development fund in Shanxi Province. The centralization of these policies will result in a significant increase in the cost of coal companies. Judging from the current profitability of coal enterprises above the national scale, most coal companies cannot bear it. According to the data provided by the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first 10 months of this year, the average profit per ton of coal of 5,025 large-scale coal production enterprises was 30.32 yuan. Among them, the profits of tons of coal (763%) accounted for 76% of the total number of coal production enterprises above the scale. The profits of tons of coal accounted for 36% of the total number of coal production enterprises above the scale (1795); only 6.07 yuan; there are 644 Loss of home companies, an average loss of 14.14 yuan per ton of coal. As far as 124 large coal producers are concerned, the average profit per ton of coal is only 25.38 yuan. Through the analysis of the first three quarterly statements of the 12 listed coal companies, the listed company’s main revenue increased and its profits declined. In the first nine months of this year, the net profit of listed companies fell by 4.89%, and the cost of main operations increased by 21.7%. Under the current conditions of coal prices and corporate burden levels, if these policies are implemented in a centralized manner, loss-making enterprises in the entire industry will increase substantially, and business operations will face difficulties. If we consider the factors that reduce the company’s cash flow by storing individual capital accounts, the company’s cash flow will be reversed. It will be more difficult.
The deep-seated contradictions that restrict the healthy development of the coal industry have not yet been fundamentally solved . 1. The economic structure is irrational. The industry's production level still presents a multi-level, low-level, and unbalanced development trend. Although after years of rectification, the number of coal mines in the country is still around 20,000, and the number and production scale of small coal mines still account for a considerable proportion. A number of small coal mines with illegal exploitation and technological backwardness and lack of safe production conditions have been disorderly mined, resulting in the waste of coal resources, environmental destruction and excessive competition, causing more uncertain and unstable factors in the coal market, and constraining the industrial productivity level. The improvement has delayed the process of coal restructuring and optimization. In recent years, some enterprises with resources, financing, talents, and regional advantages have shown a rapid development trend of high levels, diversification, and high quality. The scale, output, and economic benefits of some large-scale coal companies have rapidly increased. However, large state-owned coal enterprises in some old mining areas are faced with major difficulties in their production and operation due to declining resource quality, high mining costs, heavy social burden, and declining corporate profits.
2. The development of the industry still faces institutional and institutional obstacles. The management of the coal industry has spread to multiple departments, lack of integrated management and unified coordination mechanisms, and the government is out of control. It is difficult for enterprises to adapt and is not conducive to the overall development of the coal industry. The market-oriented reform of coal prices still faces obstacles of many systems and mechanisms. There are many problems left by the history of coal companies, heavy burdens, and lack of success in the development of the industry. The historically formed enterprises have a heavy social burden and it is difficult to separate them. The heavy burden on coal taxes has not changed. In the first three quarters of the year, the total amount of wages owed by the national coal enterprises was 870 million yuan.
3. The old and new problems are intertwined and the structural contradictions in the industry are prominent. The coal industry experienced extraordinary developments in recent years after undergoing special difficulties in previous years. Old and new contradictions are intertwined and the problems become more prominent.
First, the problem of disorderly production is even more serious. Some large and medium-sized coal mines are eager for quick success, do not look at the actual customers, and super-capacity, super-strength organization of production, resulting in mining convergence, resources, waste, mine service years. Some coal mines are driven by profit-sharing, loss of lean fertilizer, low recovery rate of mines, and serious waste of resources. Some coal mines have even violated rules and regulations and produced serious potential accidents, resulting in frequent and serious accidents. At the expense of human lives, waste of resources, and destruction of the environment, some small coal miners are frantically mining wildly. This is the main cause of the high total number of coal mine accidents and deaths.
Second, the problem of blind investment highlights. Some regions and coal mines, ignoring resource and environmental conditions, unilaterally took coal resources development as the key point for regional economic development and economic growth points. Without scientific justification, they blindly expanded the scale of development and further increased the structural contradiction of coal supply and demand. . Some coal mines to avoid government supervision, to adopt "batch Xiaojian" approach to assault construction, and some even take the "edge exploration, edge design, edge infrastructure, production side" blind production and construction, and some in order to pursue the greatest profit Super-capacity, super-intensity, and over-capacity risk organization production.
Thirdly, the coal development layout continues to be concentrated in areas with a weak ecological environment in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia. The contradiction between the regional eco-environmental issues and the bottleneck constraints in coal transportation is increasing.
In response to the above problems, the first vice president of the China Coal Industry Association, Ji Hongji, believes that “we must take it seriously and solve it in a practical manner. Development is the hard truth. To solve these problems, we must adhere to the development approach. The industry must adhere to the scientific concept of development. Accelerate the pace of reform and development of the industry, and make great efforts to resolve the various institutional and institutional obstacles that affect the healthy development of the coal industry.The coal enterprise must follow the requirements of a new path of industrialization, insist on proceeding from its own reality, and establish development in a practical and realistic manner. Objectives, choose development paths and development approaches, effectively strengthen scientific management of enterprises, strive to reduce costs, improve core competitiveness of enterprises, and rely on scientific development to solve current difficulties and problems."
However, Ji Hongji also said: “In the new and new stages, although the coal industry faces unprecedented challenges, it faces unprecedented opportunities for development. From the perspective of the national economic development, the domestic economy will continue to maintain a steady and rapid growth momentum, and coal needs A certain amount of room for growth: The state will increase the integration of coal resources, rectify and shut down illegal coal mines that do not comply with industrial policies, and will further improve and optimize the coal production environment. The process is speeding up and coal prices will have room to rise."
China's coal industry faces three major obstacles to its development
There are indications that after rapid growth in recent years, coal market demand has slowed down, industrial policy adjustments have been accelerating, and the industry is facing excess capacity and rising costs, as well as multiple pressures on resources and the environment. Some analysts believe that: