In the first half of this year, the auto market presented a prosperous scene. From the "ice sea" at the end of last year to the "sea of ​​fire" of this year, the Hangzhou auto market has experienced a rare reversal for many years. How long can the auto market boom last? Where will the auto market go in the second half? In the past few days, the Morning Post reporter visited a number of people in the industry. In the first half of the year, the reason for the blaze was just six months ago. The auto retail industry is like a panic. The newspaper “How Many Cars Can Sell in 2009†has reported on the trend of the auto market this year. At that time, most people in the industry believed that there will be a downward trend in sales growth in the auto market this year. The general view is that the growth rate will be between -5% and 5%. Looking back now, the predictions were too conservative at the time and the sales rose steadily in the first five months, leaving the United States behind. Especially in May, sales increased by 30% year-on-year, setting a record high. The mid-year sales data of major mainstream auto makers is even more alive. Shanghai GM sold 288,854 units in the first six months, an increase of 16.1% year-on-year; of the total, 60,356 units sold in June, an increase of 59.2% year-on-year. The sales volume in the first six months of Guangben reached 163,364 units, a year-on-year increase of 14.77%; of which, 34,394 units sold in June, a year-on-year increase of 79.33%. Changan Mazda sold 29,689 vehicles in the first six months, an increase of 27% year-on-year, of which 6,343 were in June, a year-on-year increase of 109%. With the continuous release of statistics from the middle of the year, these alarming figures are still being written. Why is the auto market so hot in the first half of the year? According to Xiao Xiaojun, deputy general manager of BYDIA Xin Store, in the first half of this year, both the national auto market and the Hangzhou auto market are good news. First, in January, the state introduced a policy of halving the purchase tax for models with a price of less than 1.6L, which immediately activated the small-displacement vehicle market. During the Spring Festival, almost all small-displacement models are severely out of stock. In turn, the stock market has become warmer and the purchasing power of consumers has increased. Many “disengagers†have entered the auto market. The "yellow mark car" replacement policy after March also increased the demand in the auto market. “In the second half of last year, the auto market suddenly fell to a low point, and many consumers are not optimistic about future income expectations. The purchase plan has been postponed. Since the beginning of this year, these consumers have become the main buyers, which makes the demand for the auto market soar.†In the second half of last year, the volume of "dropping" in the auto market all went to the first half of this year, and the number of increase and decrease was very significant. In addition, for commercial vehicles, the "cars going to the countryside" policy launched in the first half of the year also played a significant role in driving car sales. Since the development of the auto market, cities like Hangzhou have been relatively saturated, but like some counties and townships, they can become the most important new points in the future auto market. The auto market is good On the whole, the auto market continues to prosper in the first half of the year thanks to a series of policies to expand domestic demand. In the past six months, the country has intensively introduced the policy of bailout, which has never happened in the past. However, the auto market has to face the fact that when these policies are exhausted, can they continue to prosper? Judging from the current situation, the stimulating effect of the policy will gradually weaken. If there is no new policy stimulus, it is very difficult for the auto market to maintain a hot sales situation. The sales of cars in the first half of the year were particularly fierce, and it was precisely when the price of oil was relatively low in recent years. However, as the economy gradually recovers, the price of oil will also gradually rise. At the end of last month, the price of oil soared sharply, which is a big negative for the current auto market. In addition, the “half of the purchase tax for 1.8L models in the second half of the year†has been circulating for several weeks in the auto market and has recently been denied by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. This policy will not be introduced during the year. In other words, the probability that the auto market will make more profit during the year is almost zero. “Entering July, sales were noticeably slower. At the end of last week, we had 20 or 30 customer groups a day, but there were very few people who placed orders.†A marketing manager of a Dongfeng Nissan 4S store told reporters that if there is no new With favorable policies, the auto market will surely gradually pull back. In fact, a lot of 4S stores have actually shared the same feeling. May was a peak in the auto market sales in May this year, and sales fell in June. Although the national passenger vehicle sales data for June has not yet been announced, the first week in June decreased by 19% compared with May, and it also decreased by 13% compared to April. In July, the sales season was originally off-season. People who wanted to buy cars before the hot days were already bought well before June. Sales in July may be further lower than in June and will become a turning point for the entire auto market. The market will stabilize in the second half of the year "The entire market will stabilize in the second half of the year and will not be ups and downs." Qian Feng, general manager of Jinfeng Toyota 4S Store, told reporters that given the performance of the first half of the year, the market for the second half of the year will not be very bad. Even if the demand for the auto market falls, it is a gradual and steady process. The reporter learned that most dealers are optimistic about the auto market in the second half of the year. The big reason is that they still hold a lot of orders. At this time last year, the inventory phenomenon has been very serious. Dong Yong, Nissan and Cheng Cheng, manager of Chengcheng North Market, told reporters that due to the tight supply in the previous months, many models of Dongfeng Nissan had to queue up until now. "Even if there is a worst case, if we can't sell a few cars in July and the manufacturers still have to press our warehouses, we will not worry too much," he said. Unlike the mid-size car market, the luxury car market performed generally in the first half of the year. On September 1, last year, luxury cars fell to a low point due to the impact of the country’s large-displacement vehicle consumption tax and the economic situation. In the first half of this year, the state has introduced various favorable policies. Luxury cars are not enjoyed. Therefore, when mid-size cars sell out of stock and continue to increase prices, luxury cars in addition to newly-listed cars can occasionally enjoy “queuing†treatment, but most of the models are not in good conditions. “The key issue in the second half of the year is whether the country’s credit policy is loose or tight. 20% of luxury car sales are corporate mortgages. If credit policies tighten, sales of luxury cars will be hit hard.†Cadillac dealer Zhejiang Mikadi Zhang Jianye, general manager, believes that the overall warming of the luxury auto market is certainly looking forward to the improvement of the economic situation, but it will depend on the country's credit policy in the second half of the year. With the changes in the supply and demand of the auto market, the prices of vehicles are also fluctuating. This reporter learned that a more than 10 million yuan Tat, the highest discount rate in the second half of last year reached 16,000 yuan, the first half of this year the preferential rate of 4,000 yuan, the difference up to 12,000 yuan. After many manufacturers increase production capacity in the second half of the year, the situation of oversupply will be broken and the price of cars will gradually loosen. However, the reporter learned that because many automakers in the south will put high temperature leave in the near future, the production capacity will be significantly increased until September. By then, the car price will enter a downtrend channel and it is expected to be the lowest point of the year. Vacuum Tube Lifter Application
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