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According to statistics from the China Petrochemical Federation, total imports and exports of organic chemicals from January to June totaled 29.6 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 40% and a deficit of 5.4 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 51%. Among them, imports of 17.55 billion US dollars, an increase of 41.8%, the total import amounted to 14.933 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.6%; exports earned 12 billion US dollars, an increase of 37.7%, exports amounted to 4.31 million tons, an increase of 36.7%.
In terms of export of bulk products, the export volume of benzene products has increased, which is mainly due to the increase in the domestic 10 million-ton oil-refining projects and the corresponding increase in by-products. Therefore, the export will inevitably grow; the original imports of toluene and xylene will start to increase. The number of amino acid products, such as oxalic acid and lysine, has gradually increased. It is estimated that the import volume will decrease afterwards, indicating that the structure of China’s organic chemical imports and exports is changing quietly. The export of fine chemicals is increasing, and it is moving toward refinement. The development of high value-added technology.
Judging from the statistical data, the import and export situation of organic chemicals in China is overall good. At present, it has not been affected by changes in the exchange rate of RMB and the cancellation of export tax rebates. On the one hand, the reform of the exchange rate has just been implemented, and the impact has not yet appeared. On the Other hand, of the more than 400 kinds of products that have abolished export tax rebates, there are more than 200 chemical-related products, but pesticides, rubber, and fluorine-containing chemicals accounted for nearly 80 percent. %, the proportion of organic chemicals is very small, so the direct impact is very small, even if there is an impact, it is estimated that it will wait until the fourth quarter to appear.
Zhao Zhiping stated that in the long run, the cancellation of export tax rebates and exchange rate reforms will surely bring impacts on the import and export of organic chemicals, but their impact is not fatal. He explained that the direct impact of canceling export tax rebates is not significant, but indirect effects cannot be ignored. For example, the import and export trade of pesticides in China is a trade surplus, and the cancellation of export tax rebates for raw drugs will inevitably affect the use of organic intermediates, which will inevitably influence the import and export of organic chemicals. In terms of exchange rate changes, exchange rate reform began in 2005, and companies have already had some solutions. The exchange rate of the U.S. dollar has changed relatively frequently and companies have basically adapted. However, China’s import and export business to the EU is relatively complex. In general, there are many imports and exports, but the product complementarity is relatively strong. Therefore, the impact of the drastic changes in the exchange rate of the Euro is not fatal. In contrast, the REACH regulation will really affect the export of organic chemicals in the future. In addition, the impact of oil prices will also be greater than exchange rate changes. China has a large amount of oil, many downstream areas, and fluctuations in oil prices will also affect the prices of natural gas and other resource products.
According to some industry insiders, although the decline in the U.S. dollar in the import settlement of organic chemicals has caused import prices to drop to a certain extent, the current appreciation of the RMB against the U.S. dollar is very small, which has little effect on domestic organic chemical prices. Conversely, a lower US dollar will indirectly push up oil prices and increase the cost of oil refining, which will inevitably lead to higher prices of organic chemicals.
The relevant personage of Zhejiang Huafeng told the reporter that compared with the export tax refund cancellation and exchange rate changes, the operation of domestic installations deserves more attention. From March to April of this year, China National Ocean Offshore's 700,000-ton styrene plant was shut down for maintenance, and the import volume of styrene increased. With the release of domestic production capacity, the import volume of styrene gradually decreased and the price began to fall. Moreover, the export of styrene downstream resin products will be affected by exchange rate adjustments and the cancellation of export tax rebates, which will affect the import and export of styrene within two to four months. In addition, the current recovery process in developed economies such as the United States, Japan, and the European Union is relatively slow, and international oil price fluctuations are still intense. These factors will also affect the demand for China's export products.
China’s exchange rate reform began in 2005. The exchange reform has restarted after stagnation due to the financial crisis. This allows companies to not consider the issue of exchange rate changes when they are doing import and export trade. Faced with the impact of export tax rebates and exchange rate reforms, Zhao Zhiping suggested that enterprises should make ideological preparations for long-term response, consider the exchange rate mechanism as a price mechanism, and increase the awareness of exchange rate movements in order to reserve exchange rate changes at the beginning of negotiations. Space, shortening settlement time, accelerating the settlement rate, increasing the proportion of prepayments, signing the same contract in phases, etc., can reduce the losses caused by exchange rate changes. In addition, the risk of exchange rate changes can also be circumvented by financial instruments such as futures hedging and forward foreign exchange trading.
Organic Chemicals: Impact Is Hard to Avoid
The data shows that the import and export trade of organic chemicals has not yet been affected by the cancellation of export tax rebates and exchange rate reforms. Zhao Zhiping, director of the Information and Marketing Department of the China Petrochemical Federation, said in an interview with reporters that the impact of the future is inevitable, but the impact will not be too strong, and the initial impact of the impact will have to be at least until the fourth quarter.