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“In 2007, the total output value of the pharmaceutical industry in China (current price) exceeded 600 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15% to 16%; pharmaceutical sales revenue reached approximately 2,700 yuan, an increase of 8% to 9% year-on-year.†November 7, SFDA Southern Medical Economics Lin Jianning, director of the Institute (hereinafter referred to as the Southern Institute), described the upcoming 2007 Chinese pharmaceutical economic development situation at the 18th National Pharmaceutical Economic Information Conference.
Low tide 2006
Lin Jianning made an objective review of the medical economic operation in 2006 before making predictions on the economic operation of the pharmaceutical industry in 2007. He also pointed out that the characteristics of the industry in 2006 were that the growth rate of industrial production and commercial sales declined and the efficiency of enterprises fell; the import and export rate remained high. Growth; Losses are stable but losses have increased; hospital terminal growth has reached a new low of nearly 10 years, and retail sales have grown steadily. Lin Jianning disclosed in his report that from January to September of this year, the total output value of the national pharmaceutical industry (current price) was 386.183 billion yuan, an increase of 15.90% year-on-year, and the cumulative profit was 27.221 billion yuan, an increase of 8.14% over the same period of last year, which was a slight increase over the same period of the previous year. Slowed down, among which, the chemical preparation industry realized a profit of 7.666 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.08%, and the profit of the proprietary Chinese medicines reached 6.595 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.00%.
As a barometer of the industry, the signs of trouble for listed companies all reflect the situation of the entire industry. “In the first half of 2006, the income from the main business of pharmaceutical listed companies increased by 24%. This figure seems to be a bit of a relief. However, the reality of a 23% drop in net profit makes us feel heavy.†Lin Jianning analyzed.
In the first half of 2006, the top 10, top 20, top 50, and top 100 sales of the top 100 companies in China accounted for 23.04%, 29.07%, 38.54%, and 46.86%, respectively, and the growth rates were 4.03% and 2.87. %, 2.38%, 2.26%, showing the law that the faster the rankings grow faster, Lin Jianning analysis believes that this phenomenon shows that in the current state of the industry is in a low tide, the benefits of large companies are better than that of small enterprises, industry concentration Degree may further increase.
The growth of exports and retail is the main highlight of this year's pharmaceutical industry. Data from the China Chamber of Commerce for the Import and Export of Medicines and Health Products showed that the foreign trade surplus of China's pharmaceutical and healthcare products continued to grow at a relatively rapid rate in the first half of this year. For the industry’s most concerned terminal performance, Lin Jianning told the participants with data, “The growth rate of the first terminal has slowed down significantly, and the growth of the second and third terminals has been strong.†According to the data of the South, the hospital sold 79.98 billion yuan in the first half of 2006. Compared with 75.24 billion yuan in the same period of 2005, it only increased by 6.30%. In the first half of 2006, the retail market sales volume reached about 42 billion yuan, an increase of 16.67%.
Be careful about 2007
When talking about relevant factors affecting the operation of the pharmaceutical economy in 2007, Lin Jianning focused on analyzing the world market environment, domestic and international macroeconomic environment, industrial policy environment, and foreign trade.
From the perspective of the operation of the world's pharmaceutical economy, the analysis data quoted by Lin Jianning believes that the pace of development of the global pharmaceutical market, especially the North American market, has slowed down in these two years. It is estimated that the sales volume of the global pharmaceutical market in 2006 will be US$640 billion, with a growth rate of 6%. 7% in 2007 was 665 billion US dollars, with an increase of 5% to 6%.
It is precisely because of the above reasons that multinational corporations are accelerating the implementation of the globalization strategy. One of the competition hot spots is the Chinese market with strong development potential. Lin Jianning believes that this impact on the Chinese pharmaceutical market is that while multinational corporations increase investment in China, foreign-owned enterprises will become dominant, foreign companies’ market share will increase, and multinational corporations will also move their R&D centers to China, making patents available. The acceleration of drug production and localization of scientific research will promote the structural adjustment of the domestic pharmaceutical industry.
At the same time, China’s macro economy has entered the second round of adjustment. According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, the gross domestic product in the first three months of the year was 14.1477 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.7% year-on-year, 0.2 percentage points lower than the first half, but 0.8 percentage point higher than the same period of last year. The momentum of rapid growth in the national economy has eased, and the growth rate of some major economic indicators has declined to varying degrees, presenting a new trend of “three downs and one steadyâ€. The relative stability of the macro economy provides a good environment for the development of the pharmaceutical industry.
Specific factors such as commercial bribery in the field of pharmaceutical purchases and sales, rectification and standardization of the pharmaceutical market, and price cuts for drugs are the main factors affecting the development of the pharmaceutical industry, but Lin Jianning stressed that this is the pain that must be experienced in the healthy development of the Chinese pharmaceutical industry. Therefore, this The constraints are only temporary.
In addition, the reform of the medical and health system in China has led to the growth of the third terminal and the new round of restructuring of domestic companies. This has accelerated the integration and concentration of industry resources. Lin Jianning appears to be a driving force for the further development of China's pharmaceutical economy.
Finally, Lin Jianning predicts that the pharmaceutical market next year will exhibit the following features: the rapid increase in the market share of foreign-funded enterprises; the reshuffling of pharmaceutical businesses, the emergence of new formats; the growth of the first terminal will slow down; the growth of the second and third terminal will be active; Decline; Oral proprietary Chinese medicine market has become a hot spot for competition.
Reshuffling of pharmaceutical and commercial businesses in 2007
In 2007, the pharmaceutical market will have the following characteristics: The market share of foreign-funded enterprises will increase rapidly; the pharmaceutical industry will reshuffle and new business conditions will emerge; the growth of the first terminal will slow down; the growth of the second and third terminals will increase; the price level of drugs will decline; The pharmaceutical market has become a hot spot for competition.