The automotive industry is facing the test of market restrictions

Recently, the Tianjin Municipal Government announced that it will implement the management of incremental quota quotas for minibuses starting from 00:00 on December 16, 2013, and will implement traffic restrictions similar to that of Beijing on the tail number of vehicles starting from March 1, 2014. The management measures, which made Tianjin the fifth city to implement automobile purchase restrictions after Shanghai, Beijing, Guiyang, and Guangzhou, also made the national normalization of urban car purchases closer and closer to us.

The automobile purchase restriction policy was frequently introduced. The Tianjin Municipal Government suddenly announced the press conference at 19:00 on the evening of December 15, 2013, without any sign of symptoms. Since the close of midnight on the 16th, 2013, Tianjin will implement a small The dual measures for the regulation and control of the total amount of passenger cars and the implementation of restricted-traffic vehicles for motor vehicles are the “double-limit” policy of restricted purchases and limited lines.

As soon as the news came out, it caused widespread concern and controversy in the industry. The major 4S stores in Tianjin even hang out with a nightly operation notice. Almost every 4S shop hall is crowded with men and women, accompanied by loud and noisy crowds. The scenes of people rushing in the sea like the one near the railway station before New Year's Eve. The hall is spectacular. The distributors who performed in Beijing on the evening of December 23, 2010, sleepless nights, and they replayed in Tianjin three years later. At this point, Tianjin has become the fifth city to implement the restriction order for passenger cars following the North-Shang Guang, and it has also become the third municipality to impose restrictions on the increase of automobiles in China.

With reference to the city's restrictions on the introduction of restrictions on the purchase of local cities, the introduction of the Tianjin restriction policy will lead to a serious decline in sales in Tianjin in 2014, but due to its relatively small sales volume in the overall auto market (only 1.5% in 2012), At the same time, sales growth has slowed down in recent years, so the incident has limited impact on the overall sales of the auto market.

However, the effect of Tianjin's purchase restriction is national, because under the macroeconomic policy of the government’s strong action plan to promote air pollution control throughout the country, Tianjin’s purchase restriction has “model” force, which brings The demonstration effect will be greatly diffused.

As the "12th Five-Year Plan" for prevention and control of atmospheric pollution in key areas of the country involves more than 100 cities across the country, in order to achieve the goal of pollution control, the automobile purchase restriction policy is the most efficient and fastest way for the local government. The introduction of the Tianjin purchase restriction policy will promptly dispel the concerns of those cities that are hesitant to implement the automobile purchase restriction policy.

Undoubtedly, in 2014, China's local automobile purchase restriction policy will surely be introduced intensively. Once this restriction policy is rolled out nationwide, the Chinese automobile industry will have to accept a new market test.

Manufacturers calmly deal with the fact that, from the experience of other cities in the past, the purchase restriction policy has brought more positive news to brands such as Honda. Chen Dongsheng, president of China Automobile Shenghua Automobile Research Institute, said that “restrictions on purchases will generally not have much impact on mid- to high-end cars, and more will be a challenge to domestic low-end cars.”

He said, "The reason is very simple, after the purchase of a license plate may be tens of thousands of dollars, it is hard to have a quota, how can we buy those low-end vehicles that are several tens of thousands of yuan?" This point, in the implementation of the purchase of Beijing has been the most obvious performance. However, even if the sales of new cars declines, some dealers with large holdings can make up for them through after-sales services. For the old dealers, customer service and maintenance still have a certain profit, but for the new dealers entering the industry, the days will certainly be very sad.

On the other hand, for all brands, purchase restriction can release consumer potential in advance, especially at the end of the year.

In addition, the report also stated that on the stage of limit purchase, the auto industry that should have played as the protagonist showed a rare calm and calm.

After five days of car purchases in Tianjin, it is no longer a big surprise for automakers. "The impact is certainly there, but it won't hurt the bones. For us, the purchase restriction is no longer fresh. "In fact, after Beijing's purchase restriction three years ago, it once caused the industry to be "swollen", but the vigilant voice was quickly overshadowed by the optimism of the entire market.

For automakers, small and medium-sized cities are actually the source of real battlefields and emphases. In the first eleven months of 2013, China's auto sales have reached 1.86 million units, which exceeds the total sales volume of the previous year. The sales volume for the whole year is expected to be close to 22 million, and the purchase enthusiasm cannot be limited to consumers.

After years of maintaining the world's No. 1 car production and sales, production and sales are also the main theme of the 2013 Chinese car. This title will continue to wear.

Or change the auto consumption pattern Although manufacturers and distributors are more calm about the purchase of goods, it seems that the auto consumption pattern will still have a certain impact.

The biggest impact of this phase is that the transformation of the automobile industry will be forced to be achieved ahead of schedule due to the introduction of policies.

In the past, the focus of the industry focused on new car sales will shift more quickly to after-sales service. The growth rate of new car sales in the market has been forced to “emergency stop” after the warming momentum has appeared in 2013, so the industry’s micro growth will become a lingering ambition. Characteristics of the times.

In addition, the second impact of the purchase restriction policy is that the competition in the auto market will shift from new users to existing users. Because in the future, new sources of new car sales will shift from first-time buyers to second-time users. The competition for these users will become the focus of competition for automotive manufacturers.

Third, the national automobile market will be forced to turn to the rural market. As cities that may be restricted purchase will involve more prefecture-level cities and even county-level cities. Therefore, the market below the county level will become the market focus for enterprise development. At the same time, the emergence of an automotive after-sales service system that is independent of the car dealership system will also become inevitable. The "Automotive Brand Sales Management Approach" will also change due to changes in the way the market is sold.

However, the arrival of the nationwide purchase restriction will also release the consumption of the Chinese automobile market in advance. Since the timetable for the introduction of the automobile purchase restriction policy cannot be unified in various places, the nationwide panic over the introduction of the purchase restriction policy will make the country’s market appear to be a huge one before the end of more local purchase restriction policies by the end of 2013 to 2014. Consumption fluctuations. It was the most common behavior of consumers to purchase before the introduction of the purchase restriction policy.

This panic buying will not only change the normal market structure of the auto market, that is, consumers may shift their normal consumption from low-end cars to high-end cars step by step, and change into one-time high-end car consumption. At the same time, it will also cause a large number of consumption overdrafts to occur, that is, the consumer behavior that will be prepared to happen in the future will be realized in advance.

Such two results will, on the one hand, inevitably impair the production and sales growth of the production enterprises in the low-end car market, and at the same time will also result in insufficient supply of high-end car manufacturers. On the other hand, it will cause the auto market's growth to suddenly drop after a rapid growth in the past year or two. Regardless of the outcome, automobile manufacturers will be greatly troubled. The order of production distribution will be distorted to a certain degree because of the uncertainty of the above results.

In any case, the automobile purchase restriction policy has become the norm in more cities and has become an almost unchangeable reality. That being the case, automakers must make strategic changes in the market landscape under new policies. The independent brands that have been hit harder in the automobile purchase restriction policy need to be prepared for the “winter”.