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In April 2011, domestic commercial vehicles sold 378,800 vehicles and 409,700 vehicles, a decrease of 14.69% and 14.81% from the previous quarter, and a year-on-year decrease of 10.10% and 7.84% respectively. The sales volume of commercial vehicles has declined significantly, and the parts and components companies that are closely related to the entire vehicle companies have also been affected.
Slowdown in growth of core component companies
According to reports, the production and sales of Yuchai's machinery in April and May 2011 increased compared with the same period in 2010, but it fell slightly compared with the first quarter of 2011, with little decrease. The main reason is the growth of non-vehicle engine business, making up for the decline in the production and sales of automotive engines.
The decline in production and sales of Yuchai’s motor vehicles is mainly due to the lack of optimism in the overall situation of the commercial vehicle industry, especially the truck industry. The production and sales of passenger car engines can also be comparable to that in 2010. The engine for trucks is a little bit worse. Due to the reduction of fixed investment, there are no new projects, and the construction of water conservancy projects and low-rent housing projects have not yet been completed. The situation in the truck industry is not very good.
The lack of optimism in the truck market is related to the delisting of the 2010 favorable policy and the lack of policy stimulus in 2011. With the promulgation of a series of national macroeconomic control policies such as shrinking the monetary base, real estate and fixed asset investment have slowed down, and few new projects have been added. Constrained by funds and other factors, the investment growth of the country’s 10 million sets of affordable housing has not seen any significant growth, and the macro economy has not affected the sales of the truck market.
At the same time, the increase in freight turnover in China is not obvious, and the recovery in demand for the logistics and freight market is not strong. The strong sales in 2010 also made the increase in the quantity of heavy trucks surpass the increase in the volume of road freight turnover, which has curtailed the demand for car buyers in 2011. Moreover, the low freight rates have continued to decline, coupled with the continuous rise in oil prices and the continued deterioration in the profitability of logistics heavy truck users, which has caused the tractor market to remain sluggish since the beginning of the year. According to the analysis, most of the vehicle manufacturers are currently producing according to orders, and there are not many production schedules, mainly to digest inventory.
The current production and sales situation of another engine giant Weichai is still OK, but it is still worse than in 2010. Deutz FAW Dachai’s sales in April 2011 showed a slight year-on-year increase, which was a month-on-month decline. The hot auto market in 2010 released some demand ahead of schedule. In 2011, monetary policy tightened, coupled with policies such as fuel consumption access and Beijing restrictions, caused a decline in the auto market. The recent sales growth was mainly due to the demand for construction machinery. .
Fast, which accounted for more than 80% of the heavy-duty transmission market, was also less than ideal in April and May 2011. Fast had 62,000 units scheduled for sale in May 2011, a drop from the previous month's 89,000 units. This is mainly because the overall situation of the commercial vehicle industry has come down.
Uncertain market trend in the second half
Looking ahead to the next commercial vehicle market, some companies believe that September and October are the annual sales season. At the same time, the national IV standard will be implemented in 2012. Based on past experience, before each emission standard is increased, some users will purchase cars in advance because of concerns about the high price of new models. This time, the State III or the State IV may not be as obvious as the State II or the State III, but there will still be some sales promotion effect. In addition, the overall economic situation of the country is moving forward. Although various unfavorable factors have led to a short-term decline in production and sales, the overall situation of the automobile industry will increase with the overall economic development of the country.
However, there are also parts and components companies believe that the situation in the commercial vehicle market in the second half of 2011 is not clear. The current purchase of commercial vehicle users has become more rational, and the promotion of the State III or State IV on the market will not be very large. At present, the demand for the freight market is not high, and many users are in a state of no work. The tightening of bank’s monetary policy has also made it more difficult for users to buy loans from cars. In this situation, users will not rush to buy a car.
Although the government has lowered the GDP growth rate, the investment and GDP targets set by various regions and provinces in 2011 are still relatively high. In situations where the consumer’s intentions are not high and the export situation is not good, localities will increase in the second half of the year. Investment, this may be a favorable factor for the market in the second half of 2011.