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Environmental pressure is huge
The new national standard for commercial vehicles has repeatedly been postponed abnormally
The People's Daily July 22 front page article “The Chinese Awakening of Ecological Civilization†pointed out that in the famous “Smog Month of the Month†in 2013, 600 million people breathe and live in the highly polluted air, which is equivalent to the whole of China. Nearly half of the population’s health is threatened. In the ever-increasing air pollution, the rapid growth of car ownership is considered one of the culprits.
The data show that this is indeed the case. By 2011, China has become the world’s largest motor vehicle production and sales nation for three consecutive years, with more than 200 million motor vehicles, a 30-fold increase over 1980, and a 14-fold increase in exhaust emissions. In 2011, the country’s motor vehicle emissions were 46.079 million tons, 3.5% more than in 2010, including 6.375 million tons of nitrogen oxides, 4.413 million tons of hydrocarbons, 34.471 million tons of carbon monoxide, and 621,000 tons of particulate matter (PM).
The exhaust of motor vehicles has become the main source of air pollution in China, and is an important cause of haze and photochemical smog pollution. At the same time, because motor vehicles are mostly driven in densely populated areas, tail gas emissions directly threaten human health. As far as nitrogen oxides are concerned, motor vehicle emissions have accounted for more than 1/4 of total pollution. The automobile is the main contributor to the total amount of pollutants in motor vehicles. Its emissions of nitrogen oxides and PM exceed 90%, and hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide exceed 70%.
It is worth noting that the national motor vehicle population increased by 9.2% in 2011, but the pollutant emissions only increased by 3.5%. This started with the full implementation of the four national emission standards for commercial vehicles and passenger vehicles, accelerated the phase-out of high-emission "yellow vehicles," and improved vehicle fuel quality. The emission of bicycles that meet the National IV standard is about 30% lower than that of the National III. This shows that the implementation of higher automobile emission standards as soon as possible is an effective way to curb pollution growth.
According to the calculation of the Ministry of Environmental Protection, during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, China will add another 100 million motor vehicles, and the new consumption of gasoline and diesel will be 100 million to 150 million tons. This will bring about greater environmental pressure. In this context, the implementation of the four emission standards for diesel vehicles on January 1, 2011 was repeatedly postponed (it was postponed until January 1, 2012, and was postponed until July 1, 2013). People are puzzling. In this year's hazy weather, the people and the automotive industry generally believe that the national standard will be fully implemented as scheduled on July 1st, but the result has become a foggy look.
After July 1, the official website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Public Security did not have any information on the abolition of the national three-vehicle model, or the information that the National Three-wheeled vehicle could no longer be sold or registered. Although the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said when asked by reporters, "After July 1st, the country's new products can no longer be listed in the Ministry of Industry and Information", and some provinces and cities declare that after July 1st, the new diesel cars of the State No. 3 can no longer be sold and put on the market, but The news that the country will be postponed again has spread among various agencies and the media. The situation that the reporter learned from diesel dealers around the country in July was also divergent. Some dealers insist that they only sell four cars. Some dealers currently do not have diesel engines for sale in the country. There are also some dealers who claim to have four cars but need to book.
National IV has implemented the technical conditions
Oil is not a decisive factor
Why hasn't National IV been fully implemented, and many of the previous viewpoints viewed oil as a major hindrance factor. In fact, oil is not a decisive factor because many commercial vehicles use Guosan's oil to meet the National IV emission standards. Take medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles as an example, the domestic automobile companies mostly adopt the SCR post-processing technology route. This technical route does not require high oil products and can withstand the oil of the third country. In the past, the industry was concerned that light commercial vehicles using the EGR+DOC/POC post-processing technology line could not tolerate the oil of the third country. It was only a worry. In the Gasgoo.com interview with commercial vehicle companies, they found light commercial products such as Iveco. The technical route adopted by car manufacturers can endure the fuel of Nation III.
According to Kong Fanjun, head of Iveco's product research department, the technical route for failing to endure the country's three fuels is DPF technology, which is currently widely used in European light commercial vehicles; and Nanjing Iveco's powertrain, from the engine's displacement See, all are less than 3.0L, and the vast majority of its technical route is EGR+DOC+POC. Only “Beyond C500 wide-body light trucks is based on SCR technologyâ€. And its full range of engine technology line can withstand the country's three fuel.
In addition, from the perspective of the National 4th emission light diesel vehicle approved by the Ministry of Environmental Protection, larger light commercial vehicle companies already have the technology to upgrade the National IV. Since the Ministry of Environmental Protection officially began reviewing the National IV emissions light diesel vehicles in July 2010, larger light commercial vehicle companies (such as Nanjing Automobile, Jiangling, Jinbei, Beiqi Futian, Jianghuai, Changan Automobile, and SAIC Commercial Vehicle) have passed vehicles. Ministry of Environmental Protection approval. Some companies, such as Nanjing Iveco, even had models approved by the Ministry of Environmental Protection as early as 2009.
However, some small and medium-sized enterprises (such as Yaxing Bus, Guilin Bus, GAC Gonow, Shandong Kaima) do not have the approval of the Ministry of Environmental Protection for the light diesel vehicles of the National IV.
In addition to the post-processing system, diesel vehicles need to be upgraded to National IV, and advanced technologies such as high-pressure common rails must be used in the engine (this leads to increased costs). This technology has been used in the market for many years, and the stability of the technology has been achieved. Verification. However, as of now, this technology and post-processing technology is still mainly in the hands of foreign-funded parts and components companies.
An Analysis of the Reasons for the Failure of the Fourth National Implementation
From the above analysis, it is not difficult to see that from State III to State IV, there are feasible technical solutions. For larger commercial vehicle companies, it is not a problem to obtain engines and post-processing technologies that are upgraded to the National IV emission standards, and it is not a problem for many companies to have their own subsidiaries that can produce four diesel engines.
What are the reasons why the country has not fully implemented it? Lagging of oil products is a drag factor, and the increase in cost and protection of domestic commercial vehicle companies should be the more important reason. Although many of the local branded light commercial vehicles are approved by the Ministry of Environmental Protection, there are fewer models that are actually mass-produced.
According to analysis by experts in the industry, China's own-brand light commercial vehicle companies, especially light-guest passengers, do not have the ability to manufacture engines themselves, but they must purchase engines from Cummins, Yuchai, and others. The National IV diesel engine not only uses high-price common rail technology (because the technology is basically in the hands of foreign companies such as Bosch), but also adds exhaust gas after-treatment systems. As a result, the cost of complete vehicles has greatly increased. This is a big challenge for self-owned brand light commercial vehicle companies that rely on price advantages.
In addition to the increase in the cost of these systems, the use and maintenance costs of the National IV diesel vehicles will also increase. This may be more difficult for commercial vehicle users, especially light commercial vehicle users.
"Some self-owned brand light commercial vehicle companies may apply diesel-four technology to their high-end models," said Yang Zaifu, a commercial vehicle specialist. Foreign brands or some local brands that use foreign technology can achieve full upgrade of the entire model to the National IV. For example, Iveco's full range of models has been upgraded to the National IV emission standard since July 1 this year, and is a national diesel engine.
National IV should not be postponed
Local car companies should take the initiative to meet
Judging from the order in which the laws and regulations are promoted, the Fourth National Emissions Regulations must be implemented. First, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People's Republic of China will stop the declaration of the emission of products, and then the production of the three products will be stopped. Finally, sales will stop. Considering that the product immediately declared to stop selling will result in the waste of social resources, the time for stopping the sale of the third national product must be longer than the time for the announcement to stop reporting. Therefore, the market expects the product of the third national product on July 1st. Stopping sales has actually failed. However, market participants believe that the implementation of the National IV standard will not be postponed for a long time even if it is postponed because the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Announcement has stopped reporting. Referring to the actual progress of the country’s upgrading of the country’s third nationality, from 2007 to 2008, the country’s second national escalation country from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. The announcement stopped reporting until sales stopped, which was about 9-10 months. Therefore, many people have calculated that the time for the implementation of the National IV emission standards will be from January 1 to July 1, 2014.
Although there is no official announcement on whether the State Council has decided to postpone or postpone the time. The local automobile authorities have already adopted their own policies regarding whether or not the new national car can be registered after July 1. Although most provinces and cities declare that after July 1st, the new diesel cars of Guosan can no longer be registered. However, in an interview with the reporters, many county-level cities or remote areas still allowed the new vehicle on the National 3rd license and said “no one will check itâ€. Some provincial capital cities also relax the registration time for the three national cars. For example, it is reported that the national IV emission standard in Wuhan will be postponed until December 31, 2013. However, Shanxi Tai principle declared that “the state-three standard heavy and medium-sized vehicles before July 1, 2013 can handle motor vehicle registration business†for the certificate and vehicle purchase invoices.
In general, these are not the biggest problems, and they can all be overcome, whether they are oil products or corresponding technological improvements and tests. The key issue is the cost issue, and related business sales, market share and profit issues. The implementation of the National IV will force local commercial vehicle companies to become high-end and the entire industry will be upgraded accordingly. However, local commercial vehicle parts suppliers failed to grasp the core technology of the National IV, and local commercial vehicle companies seem to be trying hard to push the industry upgrade. In spite of this, the national fourth and subsequent national five are unavoidable major trends. Commercial vehicle companies, especially local brands, should no longer indulge in the previously high market share and should take the initiative to meet them. They must take national environmental protection seriously. , actively improve the technology and industry.