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On December 3, a fine chemical product supply base with an investment of 3 billion yuan and an annual output of 100,000 tons of BDO (1,4-butanediol) broke ground in Korla, a southern town in Xinjiang.
On December 16, the groundbreaking ceremony for the first phase of Guizhou Xifeng Phosphorus and Coal Fine Chemical Park, which is located in the southwest, was held. According to reports, the total investment for this industrial park is 40 billion yuan. The first phase of this foundational project includes an annual output of 100,000 tons of industrial and food, electronic grade phosphoric acid, 300,000 tons of nitric acid, 150,000 tons of liquid and crystalline ammonium nitrate products.
Two days later, on December 18, a project was held in Huai'an, Anhui Province, where a ceremony was held. This is a coalification integration project established by China National United Coal Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. jointly established by Sinopec and Wanbei Coal and Power Group Corporation. It will build 1.7 million tons/year of coal to methanol and convert 600,000 tons/year of olefins, 600,000 tons/year of ethylene glycol and derivatives of the above products, with a total investment of 26 billion yuan......
According to incomplete statistics, industry investment projects that occurred in one month in December last year and have an investment of more than 3 billion yuan.
The "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" passed and the "Twelfth Five-Year" came. Looking at the scene of the “Eleventh Five-Year†ending month, still standing at the two five-year staggered time point, we can see what kind of state the “Twelfth Five-Year†industry investment will likely be. What?
The five-year period in which investment has been the largest has been a relatively rapid increase in the total investment volume. This is the case of Wang Xiaofeng, deputy director of the Industrial Development Department of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, in an interview with reporters on the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†industry investment status. The greatest feelings.
Gu Zongqin, president of the Petroleum and Chemical Planning Institute, also stated that during the “11th Five-Year Plan†period, China’s petroleum and chemical industry was one of the most attractive industries for investment. The rate of investment in fixed assets grew rapidly, and the total output value of the chemical industry was already at the top. World number one.
Their evaluation has data support.
According to statistics from the China Petrochemical Federation, during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, the industry’s total investment amounted to 4.3 trillion yuan, with an average annual increase of 23.8%, which is the largest investment in history for the past five years. In 2010, the petroleum and chemical industry is expected to complete an investment of 1.16 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 188% from 2005. The average annual investment in these five years amounts to nearly 900 billion yuan, which is nearly 40% more than the total investment in the "Ninth Five-Year Plan."
If we look back, the projects that invested several billion yuan and several billion yuan during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†will be at hand: Datang International’s total investment of 4 billion cubic meters of coal-based natural gas in Heshiketengqi 257 Billion yuan, total investment of 1 million tons ethylene project in Tianjin is 26.8 billion yuan, Yichang CSG silicon project investment is 6 billion yuan, China Coal Group builds 1.8 million tons/year methanol and 600,000 tons/year olefin large-scale coal chemical project in Harbin With an investment of nearly 20 billion yuan, the total investment of the Dazhou Chemical Industrial Cluster is 19.2 billion yuan, PetroChina Jiangsu LNG has invested 6 billion yuan in the first phase, and China Chemical Industry Group has invested 24.5 billion yuan in the new material base built in Tianjin......
Yang Xiaoyong, director of the National Silicone Engineering Technology Research Center, told the reporter: “In the 11th Five-Year Plan period, China’s investment in silicones was generous and the new production capacity was the highest in history. At present, China’s organic silicon monomer production capacity has reached 1.1 million tons. It has greatly eased the situation that China's silicone monomer is heavily dependent on imports."
Gu Zongqin said that the large-scale planning of investment has enabled the oil and chemical industry to “build a strong industrial system that is relatively complete in terms of categories, supporting more varieties, and basically meeting the needs of the national economy and people’s lives.â€
However, huge investment is not only the driving force for the development of the industry, but also forms a kind of resistance to a certain extent.
Wang Xiaofeng told reporters that due to the unreasonable investment structure, the large-scale investment in the past five years has made the structural contradiction of the industry more prominent. "For example, the excessive expansion of the production capacity of bulk products has led to a surplus of many products. This is an indication of overheated investment."
Gu Zongqin statistics of China's refining, synthetic materials, fertilizers, organic materials, inorganic raw materials and other areas of product yield found that there are currently more than 20 product output has ranked first in the world.
Of the "first" products in the world, quite a few have already been seriously surplus. According to data provided by Sun Weishan, the Deputy Secretary-General of the China Petrochemical Federation, in 2008, the country's soda ash production capacity was over 27.4%, caustic soda overcapacity was 33.4%, polyvinyl chloride overcapacity was 41.2%, excess phosphorous was 61.8%, and phosphate fertilizer excess capacity was 40.6. %.
Investment in "hot" is another flaw in the industry investment during the "Eleventh Five-Year" period. Even the new coal chemical investment, which must be measured in billions of dollars, has blossomed.
According to statistics from relevant state departments, as of the end of 2009, the total amount of coal-to-oil had exceeded 40 million tons, the total production capacity of coal-to-olefins was 20 million tons, and the coal-based natural gas reached 25 billion cubic meters. The total investment of these projects is estimated to be more than 1 trillion yuan in accordance with the investment in demonstration projects.
During the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, low-carbon products will have a lot of room for development.
The direction of investment is facing structural adjustment "In the next five years, there will be a certain degree of growth in investment," Wang Xiaofeng said with certainty.
He believes that there are many factors that support the growth of investment in the industry. Although many products are currently in a state of excess, many new areas will still have great room for development, such as electronic chemicals, new materials and new energy products, low-carbon products, bio-chemicals, chemical energy-saving and environmental protection industries, and so on.
“Many products in the petroleum and chemical industries are all supported by other industries. According to the development plans already understood, the future development speed of chemical-related industries such as automobiles, light industry, textiles, papermaking, construction and building materials will be very fast. For example, the automobile industry will produce and sell 30 million vehicles each year by 2015. The development of these industries will greatly increase the demand for chemical auxiliary products, such as the production of tires, paints, engineering plastics, and biodiesel. All these will support investment growth in the oil and chemical industries, said Wang Xiaofeng.
According to the information disclosed, there are two indicators in the “Twelfth Five-Year†development plan of the industry under development that are particularly attracting attention. First, the refinement rate of the industry should be increased from 45% at the end of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period to 50%. First, the radialization rate of the tire industry should be increased from 80% to 85%.
“There are two ways to improve the refinement rate and radialization rate of the industry. By eliminating obsolete production capacity and reducing investment in bulk products, we will reduce the proportion of bulk products and reduce the proportion of biased tires, but this rate will be very slow. It will also be very small.Then we will increase the productivity of radial tires, increase their output, vigorously develop the fine chemical industry, and increase the output of fine chemical products. This will undoubtedly increase the number and growth of industrial investment," said Wang Xiaofeng.
According to data provided by an expert from the Petroleum and Chemical Planning Institute, the growth rate of the demand for major fine chemical products in China during the 12th Five-Year Plan period is around 30%, and the demand for new material products will increase several times. This huge demand also offers the possibility of substantial growth in investment in these areas.
According to Yang Xiaoyong, during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, the investment in the organic silicon industry will continue. Looking at the current situation alone, Blue Star Spark Silicon Silicon Plant is expected to form a capacity of 500,000 tons of organic silicon monomer this year, and will also plan to build 200,000 tons of organic silicon monomer production capacity; Dongyue Group also plans to further expand organic silicon production capacity. Ningbo Hesheng Group is planning a 400,000-ton project while building 400,000 tons of organic silicon and supporting projects in Xinjiang. “Investment fever in the silicone sector is mainly due to promising downstream market demand. For example, hot-vulcanized silicone rubber is currently used mainly in electronic appliances and automobiles, and with the strong increase in China’s automobile consumption, it stimulates the rapid growth of the silicone rubber market. At the same time, there has been an increase in the use of sporting goods, office supplies, beauty materials, personal care, and kitchen utensils."
Even coal chemical companies that were once suppressed are still maintaining investment. "The future of coal chemical industry investment will remain a hot spot." Wang Xiaofeng judged that although the country has been doing its best to cool overheated investment in the coal chemical industry in recent years, it is based on the temptation of major interest in high oil prices and delineating the demand for resources. Investment in the chemical industry will come in various forms.
that's the truth.
On December 26, 2010, Guizhou also signed a coal chemical project with Sinopec with a total investment of 52 billion yuan. Since last year, the plans for large-scale coal chemical investment have never stopped. Among the provinces that have already disclosed the basic contents of the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€, 20 or so have claimed to vigorously develop the coal chemical industry, including not only the western regions such as Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia and Mengmeng, but also many eastern and western regions. Developed areas. Only one province in Shanxi Province has already attracted more than 500 billion yuan in total funds. These funds will be invested in coal chemical industry during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, of which only 250 million yuan will be invested in one area of ​​coal-to-olefins production. The companies that claim to invest hundreds of billions of yuan and invest hundreds of billions of yuan in coal chemical industry are also found everywhere.
Investment will be constrained by many factors but experts also expressed another view.
“The scale of industry investment in the next five years may still be very large, but the growth rate will be smaller than the 'Eleventh Five-Year Plan'.†Wang Xiaofeng said when he said this is very positive.
Changes in the macro environment are the greatest constraints on industry investment.
Different from previous five-year plans that focused on the speed of development, the Fifth Plenary Session of the Seventeenth Central Committee that proposed the overall concept and thinking of the National Twelfth Five-Year Plan passed a signal: “Accelerating the transformation of economic development methods†and “safeguards And improve people's livelihood will be fully strengthened in the reform of the next five years. In the eyes of experts, this means that the balance of economic development in the next five years will be greater from speed to quality, efficiency, and people's livelihood.
"This shows that the pursuit of GDP growth in the next five years is no longer sufficient." Wang Xiaofeng said that this change in thinking may trigger changes in officials' evaluation systems and evaluation standards, and changes in their performance outlook. In this way, investment in projects such as those that are less effective in improving people’s livelihood and relatively high risk of environmental safety will be limited in some areas. In the past, in order to pursue immediate achievements regardless of the quality of the project, no matter whether the technology is advanced or not, whether or not the overcapacity investment needs will be suppressed. In the past, investment projects that were still under the purview of local governments, which had a large excess production capacity, may not have opportunities in the future.
In addition, changes in the financial environment are also a major constraint on industry investment.
Although the central government has not explicitly stated that it is necessary to tighten credits so far, the central bank has included raising the deposit reserve ratio multiple times, raising interest rates twice in a short period of time at the end of the year, and vigorously promoting green credit policies. The actions indicate that the investment environment in the next five years will not be as loose as it used to be. In the future, investments worth billions of billions of dollars will not be so smooth.
"Financial institutions may not provide loans if they have apparently excess production capacity, but the general technology used in the project is not." Wang Xiaofeng estimated.
There are also experts who say that unless there is an economic disaster like the financial crisis, it will no longer appear that financial support will be given to projects that would like to invest as much money as before.
“There is also a constraint on industry investment, which is the development of some related industries. Some industries’ product production capacity has developed to a certain extent, the future development will slow down, and their demand for related chemical products will also become smaller. The demand for some products will also shrink like the cesium carbonate used in traditional TVs during the 11th Five-Year Plan period,†said Wang Xiaofeng. For example, the total capacity of the steel industry is already very high, and it will be difficult to increase them. Focus on carbon and other related products. The demand growth will be smaller. There are also nitrogen fertilizers and phosphate fertilizers in fertilizers. "Then, investment in new capacity in these areas will be limited accordingly."
Even coal chemical industry will pay more attention to the integration with related industries, such as IGCC (integrated coal gasification combined cycle power generation system), and technical research.
The reporter noticed that Fang Junshi, Director of the Coal Department of the National Energy Administration, recently stated that during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, the national coal chemical policy orientation was a restriction; Zhu Hongren, chief engineer of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, also stated that China’s modern coal chemical industry still focuses on demonstrations. And will strictly limit the coal transferred to the region to develop coal chemical industry.
On the one hand, it is the enthusiasm for investment that has been rising all over the country. On the other, it is the country's closed regulatory gate. How much of the planned “12th Five-Year†coal chemical industry's huge investment will end up depends on the outcome of the game between the central and local governments.
Will the "12th Five-Year" chemical investment fever diminish?
The December of 2010 is the closing month of the “Eleventh Five-Year†ending year. With the cold nature of nature, it is still a booming investment in the oil and chemical industry.