Impulse dealers face a dilemma at the end of the year (1)

Distributors' ongoing inventory disputes have attracted the attention of the industry. In October, the China Automobile Dealers Association released for the first time the stock situation reports of 20 major automobile manufacturers in July-September this year. This is also the first time since the China Automobile Dealers Association proposed the establishment of an “inventory early warning system” in March of this year. According to the survey report of the China Automobile Dealers Association, the inventory of most companies is gradually decreasing. However, in the face of the imminent year-end impulse, dealers have to start to reserve cars for more rebates at the end of the year.

Yan Jinghui, deputy general manager of the Asian Games Village Automotive Trading Market, said, “November is destined to be a distributor of centralized reserve supplies, and no one is willing to miss the car consumption feast at the end of the year because they do not have a car. But dealers who have just experienced excessive inventory crisis, Once it is decided that a large number of cars will enter the market in November, it will be able to digest the stock before the end of the year. How to choose between profit and rebate is still a headache problem."

The establishment of an early-warning mechanism is expected to adjust its production rhythm. At the beginning of the year, the China Automobile Dealers Association announced that it would consider establishing an "intelligent warning system for car dealers." It is understood that the purpose of establishing an early-warning mechanism for the China Auto Circulation Association is to provide a reference index and judgment basis for car companies and governmental management departments concerned with the automobile market.

After the investigations in July, August and September, the "Investigation Report on the First Stock Vehicle Alarms" of the China Automobile Dealers Association was released in a timely manner, including 487 4S stores involving 20 car companies. The data shows that in the third quarter of the average monthly inventory of cars, the inventory and sales ratio of only three car companies is above 1.5:1, while the other 17 are below 1.5:1.

Although Luo Lei, deputy secretary general of the China Automobile Dealers Association, admits, from the current point of view, it is still difficult to count the actual stocks in the market. However, this time through the survey, the association has established a model and established different levels of car line alert lines, so that auto companies can reasonably adjust the pace of production, ease the pressure on dealers inventory.

Chen Jiaohong, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Dealers Association, stated that in the survey, many dealers reported that the pressure on stocks was excessive, especially when they entered the car at one time, which further increased their financial pressure. It has been revealed that the China Automobile Dealers Association has communicated with some manufacturers on the early warning data on car inventory, and many manufacturers have also responded to this, indicating that they will adjust the production pace as appropriate. It can be seen that the establishment of the early warning mechanism has played a role in relieving the dealers' car inventory pressure.

Inventory fell to a low point Dealer pressure remained The establishment of a vehicle inventory early warning mechanism allowed manufacturers to intuitively understand the 4S store's inventory status. In September, the sales were greatly reduced the pressure on dealers. China Association of Automobile Manufacturers statistics show that from January to September this year, China's automobile production and sales were 1,308,270 and 13,138,400 vehicles, respectively, an increase of 36.10% and 35.97%. After the peak season of production and sales, the production and sales volume of China's automobiles have reached the level of last year.

"Our inventory has been very few, almost all models have appeared out of stock." Last week, the reporter saw in a Dongfeng Nissan 4S shop, due to shortage of car sources, the store's source of visitors was significantly reduced, a large hospital pendulum There are several commodity vehicles and they are all new models. FAW Toyota's dealers also appeared in the "zero inventory" phenomenon, a dealer said that the store has now completed 95% of the annual sales target, sales pressure is very small.

Not only did the joint venture brand's inventory pressure drop, but the inventory of independent brand dealers also improved significantly. In the Chery 4S store, there have been rare phenomenon of lack of models.

The “Current Wind Trend Index of the Automotive Market” from the Asian City also showed that in 1989, the sales of new cars in Beijing exceeded 70,000 units, and they were hot for two consecutive months, reversing the continuous decline in market sales in the past few months. , greatly eased the dealer inventory pressure. With the strong sales in September, the stock situation of distributors improved further. The proportion of dealers whose inventory cycle is more than 30 days has dropped from 27.5% in August to 18.9%, which is the lowest proportion this year. The proportion of dealers in short supply increased from 7.5% to 15.6%, the highest this year.

However, not all distributors' inventory is in a reasonable state. Yan Jinghui told reporters that inventory pressure has always been a headache for dealers. Due to over-optimistic estimates of market demand in the first half of the year, many dealers’ inventory has been hovering near the cordon. Although the total stock of dealers is decreasing at present, for a few dealers, the situation is still not optimistic.

Although the trend of optimistic judgments was at the end of the year, many dealers' inventory pressure eased under the data of production and sales, but in order to prepare for the upcoming year-end impulse, many dealers still indicated that they would reserve a large number of vehicles.

"Last year, we took a deficit without stocks. Orders before the end of the year were not delivered until the second year. Since there are no more orders for loss of supply, we need to prepare earlier this year." A joint-venture brand dealer told reporters that from now on, Most of the distributors’ annual sales targets have not yet been completed, and the policy of multi-product rebates for manufacturers also allows dealers to guarantee year-end profits only by increasing inventory.

In addition, many dealers who did not have a good sales performance in the first three quarters were also eager to put their treasure at the end of the year, in order to be able to enter the car in order to ensure the supply of goods in the end of the year for customers to fight for the war. Market participants said that these cars are also facing the risk of becoming a stockpile.

However, the auto industry climate monitoring report recently released by Xinhua believes that the recovery of dealer confidence is accelerating. In the face of this traditional sales season at the end of the year, the industry is generally optimistic about the overall operation of the auto market in the coming months. The purchase of small-displacement vehicles that may be brought about by the purchase tax preferential policies will be brought together in advance and become a bright spot for sales growth at the end of the year.

"What is certain is that manufacturers will press dealers to complete sales targets, and dealers will inevitably eliminate inventory through price reductions. This is exactly what consumers are willing to see." Yan Jinghui said that with the end of the purchase tax concessions As the deadline approaches, consumers will become more sensitive to changes in car prices, and the performance of dealers will also determine the ultimate result of market sales.