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The end of the year has traditionally been the year-round harvest of commercial vehicle companies and the outlook for the market in the coming year. The arrival of the economic winter has made this demand even more pressing. In various related forums and conferences, the analysis and judgment of the commercial vehicle market trend in the next year has become a hot topic for business people and experts and scholars.
Accelerate cooling
Speaking of the severe challenges and tests China has undergone this year, the Central Economic Work Conference held this month has used two unpredictable and rare adjectives in history.
Some recent data released prove the severity of the situation. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the industrial added value of industrial enterprises above designated size (companies with a business income of more than RMB 5 million per year) rose by 5.4% year-on-year in November, which is the lowest YoY increase since 1994. Among them, the decline in industrial added value of automobile manufacturing in November ranked first in all industries. It can be said that the rapid decline in economic growth has become a prominent issue in China's current economic operation.
The data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers also shows that in the first 11 months of this year, China's automobile production and sales increased by less than 10% year-on-year. For the first time since 2006, the growth rate of production and sales both dropped by more than 14% year-on-year. In November, the sales of commercial vehicles declined significantly year-on-year from passenger cars in the major categories of automobiles. In addition, China’s auto exports also saw a continuous decline from July to September.
Among various commercial vehicle models, light passengers' sales in January-November fell from the same period of last year, and the situation was the most severe. Light commercial vehicle sales also saw the first single-digit growth in seven years. Sales of large and medium-sized buses have experienced a “high-stage diving†from June to July, and exports have dropped for seven consecutive months. The year-on-year increase in sales of heavy trucks fell from 41% in January to -33.8% in November.
According to Xu Changming, director of the Information Resource Development Department of the National Information Center, although China's commercial vehicle sales have maintained a moderate growth rate this year, the monthly change rate is even greater than that of passenger vehicles.
Two perspectives
In an interview, the reporter found that when it comes to the impact of the global financial crisis on China’s economy and the automotive industry, industry experts and scholars have focused on the long term and are generally optimistic.
Dr. Jianlong Yang, director of the Research Department of the Ministry of Industry and Economics of the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that in this round of financial crisis, China will become an important force for stimulating the world economy. He analyzed that from the year 2000 onwards, China has entered the consumption phase of consumption from food and clothing consumption. According to international experience, the housing consumption phase is characterized by sustained high growth. The short-term impact of the financial crisis on China's economy is certain, but it will not change the big cycle of economic development.
Professor Yu Qiwu of the School of Business Administration of Capital University of Economics and Trade also said optimistically that the bubble in China’s automobile consumption is minimal, and that the financial crisis is more than a challenge to the automotive industry in China. "China has money in hand and it is a rare opportunity if it is spent on the place," he said.
In contrast, most people in the auto industry pay more attention to the short-term, and generally do not look optimistic about the next market trend.
Ding Hongxiang, chairman of China Import Auto Trading Co., Ltd., said: “The high-speed growth for many years has ended. In the next two to three years, the size of China’s auto market will hover around 10 million.â€