Roland Berger: China's auto sales will account for 30% of global sales in 2025

• By 2025, the production and sales of the world's automobile industry will shift to the Asian market on a large scale, and China’s annual sales of automobiles will account for 30% of global sales.

• The importance of small cars and low-cost cars will gradually increase • By 2025, pure electric vehicles will reach 10% of global new car sales, and hybrid cars will reach 40%.

• Connectivity between cars and networks will be a key factor • New business models will come into being • Companies must undergo structural restructuring and willing to cooperate with other companies to succeed In the next fifteen years, the development of the world's auto industry will be in the top five Under the influence and influence of macro trends, there have been leaps and bounds. These five macro trends are: changes in global geopolitics, changes in the demographic structure, the need for sustainable development, the evolution of travel and transportation methods, and the development of science and technology. Roland Berger Management Consulting Co., Ltd. put forward ten conclusions on these changes that will occur in the just published "2025 Automotive Industry Outlook" report. In order to complete this one-year research, Roland Berger teamed up with Anri International, an internationally renowned human resource consulting company, to visit more than 60 auto manufacturers, parts supply companies, industry experts and R&D institutions all over the world.

“The center of gravity of the world auto industry will gradually shift,” said Dr. Wolfgang Wolfgang, partner of Roland Berger and one of the authors of the report. “The major technologies of the leading industries will undergo major changes and new corporate structures will emerge. Staff and management will face new job requirements and challenges, and new business models will also emerge."

The world automobile industry will transfer the production and sales areas of the world automobile industry to Asia. It will shift to the Asian market on a large scale. More models tailor-made for the Asian market will also emerge.

The rise of small cars and low-cost cars In many Asian developing countries, low-cost cars are the key “entry-level” models, while A-class and B-class cars are also a category of car buyers. With the change of consumer values, small cars are gradually favored by consumers in developed countries.

At the same time, the appeal of cars is gradually diminishing in the minds of young consumers. “In the developed markets, the car consumption values ​​will undergo a fundamental change: For young people, the car as a symbol of status and status will no longer be the case.” Roland Berger and one of the authors of this report Mr. Man said.

Automotive electric vaporization and "real-time online"

Car electrification will become the mainstream trend in the future. By 2025, nearly half of the cars will use pure electric or hybrid power. By then, pure electric vehicles will reach 10% of global new car sales, hybrid vehicles will reach 40%, and pure internal combustion engine cars will still occupy half of the country. “The continuous increase in the share of automotive electrification will not only change the traditional automotive industry chain, but will also impact power companies and third-party industries that provide new types of services,” Dr. Wolfgang continued.

According to this research report, many cars will realize "real-time online" in the future, and they will surf the Internet, receive and send information while driving. The interconnectedness of cars and networks will be the key factor. "This means that the traditional automotive industry will work closely with related industries (such as consumer electronics, communications, Internet e-commerce, etc.) and even at a certain level. Therefore, the management of the automotive industry must With a cross-industry vision, an effective cross-industry cooperation model can be established and mutually beneficial,” Mr. Kleinman continued.

The new business model The new business model and the new industry chain partners will also come into being with the changes in car consumption patterns and technology applications described above. These new participants from the non-traditional auto industry will bring certain impact and threats to the current auto manufacturers. "Traditional car manufacturers must establish a variety of cooperative relations in order to acquire new technology, develop new consumer groups and establish an economic scale," said Dr. Huffman, executive director of Roland Berger and author of this report. Automobile companies must also shift from simple car production and sales to the integration of new automotive software and hardware technologies.

Organizational Adjustments of Companies In order to expand global market share and absorb global resources, auto companies will gradually adjust their organizations from “centralized” to “localized” operations, and effectively integrate global resources while building local Market consumer demand and regulatory standards products. The future development of the industrial structure will present two major trends: On the one hand, the integration of component manufacturers will continue; on the other hand, new OEMs will emerge from emerging markets and non-traditional automotive industries.

Implications for China's auto industry "There is no doubt that China is the world's most concerned and rapidly growing market in the next 15 years, and our global industry research will bring forward-looking revelations to the Chinese auto market." Shen Jun, Vice President and Senior Partner of Roland Berger Greater China and head of Greater China Automotive Industry Center, said. “The 12th Five-Year Plan just released will have a fundamental impact on the development of China's auto industry in the next five years and beyond. Our senior team of consultants will also combine this global research and related policy planning to analyze its relationship with China. The impact brought by the market and its implications. At the same time, how China's unique development route will affect the overall development of the global automotive industry in the future is also a topic of our concern.”

The "2025 Automotive Forward-looking Report" will be released in Shanghai on April 19 to coincide with the 2011 Shanghai Auto International Exhibition. Roland Berger Greater China Automotive Industry Center will hold "Roland Berg 2025" on April 19. Prospects for the Automotive Industry: Report Launch and China Enlightenment Forum.

In this event, we will invite the following experts from the Roland Berger Automotive Industry Group to share their views, including:

• Ralph Kammbach, Global Board Member and Head of the Global Automotive Industry Center • Shen Jun, Senior Partner and Head of Greater China Automotive Industry Center • Philip Kleman, Partner, Dr. Marcus Huffman, Frankfurt, Germany, Executive Director, Munich, Germany