Traffic Congestion Charges Continue to Fertilize the Downfall of the Auto Market

Domestic automobile production and sales continue to grow, and more and more large cities cannot afford it. Since the beginning of 2012, some major cities in China have invariably mentioned “study on the collection of traffic jam fees”. This topic has continued to ferment. During the two sessions of the National Committee, some members participated in the discussion, which triggered unprecedented attention.

Should congestion charge be imposed in the end? Which cities are conditionally levied? These issues have caused fierce discussions on public opinion. People from different positions have held stubborn opinions. Although so far, the most online surveys that can reflect public opinion show that most people still hold opposing attitudes, but if the auto growth is not restricted, the introduction of restrictions will be unavoidable.

The explosive growth of automobile production and sales in 2009 and 2010 had brought infinite glory to the industry; however, the so-called “blessings and misfortunes” have caused various pressures on automobiles to be rapidly amplified and triggered Beijing’s limit licensing at the end of 2010. Measures, formally announced the arrival of the "car limit era". In 2012, when the entire industry is operating at a scale of 20 million units each year, it is still necessary to beware of the "congestion charges" as a "sword of Damocles".

Situation: The “congestion fees” imposed by major cities have been officially announced since the end of 2010, when Beijing implemented the shake number restriction. At present, with the overwhelming burden of some major cities, the collection of “congestion fees” in these major cities is a general trend. Now the only suspense is time, which has almost become the consensus of the industry.

The number of vehicles in the fleet has reached a record high. The “traffic congestion” is caused by too many cars. In the past three years, China has added 18 million new vehicles each year, which has put enormous pressure on major cities. Since the beginning of 2012, there have been a number of cities that have announced that they will investigate the collection of "congestion fees", including not only first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, but also second-tier cities such as Xiamen.

During the two sessions of the National Committee of the Communist Party of China, as many highly exposed members joined the discussion, “traffic congestion fees” became a national topic. Related to this is that since the beginning of this year, the number of car ownership in many cities has reached a record high, contributing to the topic of “congestion fees”.

In February 2012, the number of motor vehicles in Beijing exceeded the 5 million mark and the total number reached 5.017 million. Among them, private motor vehicles have accounted for more than 70% of the total number of motor vehicles. According to the forecast of the traffic department, in 2016, the number of motor vehicles in Beijing will reach 6 million.

At 4:00 pm on February 27, an Amber Buick with the license plate number Guangdong B/N 8L92 became the 2 millionth Guangdong B license car in Shenzhen. In other words, Shenzhen has 2 million cars, second only to Beijing, ranking second in the country, and ranking eighth in motor vehicle ownership.

It is understood that, according to 2 million vehicles to measure, Shenzhen, the total length of the current road more than 6,100 km, Shenzhen, the density of road vehicles has exceeded 300 vehicles / km, more than the international 270 / km alert.

On February 28, the Standing Committee of Xiamen Municipal People’s Congress heard the “Proposal Concerning Accelerating Advancement of Traffic Demand Management in Our City” put forward by Wang Weishan and other 10 delegates and proposed to hand it over to the municipal government. “Whether it will be charged in the prosperous business district? Congestion fees have caused widespread concern.

On March 12th, Shanghai, which has implemented license auction policies for many years, also joined the “research on the implementation of road congestion fees” camp.

According to data from the traffic police in Guangzhou, as of June of last year, the number of cars in Guangzhou reached 1.7 million, and the number of vehicles in Guangzhou is still growing at an annual rate of 300,000. Based on this growth rate, the number of vehicles in Guangzhou will reach 2 million within the next year. In addition, the number of motor vehicles in Tianjin, Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Chengdu is also close to 2 million, and the number of motor vehicles in 23 cities in China has exceeded the million mark.

According to the information from the Traffic Management Bureau of the Ministry of Public Security, China’s motorization has developed rapidly. By the end of 2011, the number of motor vehicles in the country was 225 million, of which 106 million were automobiles; and 236 million were motorists in the country.

According to internationally accepted standards, 20 out of 100 families in a country own a car and enter the automobile society. According to the data at the end of last year, the number of cars held by domestic 400 million households exceeds the 80 million required by 5:1, which has reached the internationally recognized automotive society standard.

PM 2.5 and dual pressures of congestion “The number of vehicles in some large cities in China will hit a new high this year, and it is approaching the relevant agencies to assess the urban traffic carrying capacity ceiling,” said Su Hui, head of the branch of the tangible market of the China Automobile Dealers Association, in the development of public transport. At the same time, “stopping, restricting, and restricting” motor vehicles is also an essential means of governance in hotspots and hotspots.

Due to the rapid growth of automobiles and the unsustainable construction of roads, most of the cities are currently congested. During the peak hours, only a red taillight was seen on the road. Many people's time and energy were consumed in traffic jams and caused more and more complaints.

Taking Beijing as an example, the transportation department introduced that for every additional 1 million cars, an increase of 2.82 million vehicles and kilometers of road network capacity is required. It is equivalent to 30% of the capacity of the road network in the entire Third Ring Road and the capacity of the road network in the Fifth Ring Road. Although Beijing began to implement limit licensing in 2011, the average duration of each working day is still 70 minutes.

According to statistics from Shenzhen, if two-lane two-lane roads are used on each road, and each vehicle occupies a space of 6 meters, all cars in Shenzhen will be on the road and the city’s roads will be filled; if all the cars in Shenzhen are connected end to end, From Shenzhen to Beijing, there are two round trips.

A more typical example is Shanghai. Shanghai has implemented a "photographing auction" policy for many years, but it still suffers from road congestion. On March 12th, Shanghai has clearly adhered to the “photo auction” and studied road congestion charging. In addition, since this year, members in Wuhan and Chengdu have proposed to use the “Limited License” to control the total amount of car purchases.

Since 2012, major cities in China have published P M2.5 data one after another, many of which have exceeded the city's index, and the “culprit” has almost always pointed to vehicle exhaust pollution. During rush hours, the entire city looks like a huge parking lot. According to estimates by the environmental monitoring department, motor vehicle emissions are already the main culprit for the generation of PM 2.5 in the atmosphere in Shanghai.

Han Zhipeng, a member of the Guangzhou Municipal CPPCC Committee, said that traffic congestion and air pollution are two twin sisters. They are the most serious “urban diseases” and test the wisdom of city managers. Looking at the tricks of major cities in the world, there are mainly restrictions on single and double number lines, commuting to and from work, control of parking facilities, raising parking fees, and levying congestion fees—without exceptions involving restrictions on the use of cars.

Through practical experience, experts found that compared with some administrative measures, the introduction of “traffic congestion fees” through economic levers may yield good results, guide citizens in the rational use of automobiles, and increase the efficiency of allocation of urban transport resources.

Market: Auto market hangs "Sword of Damocles"

The arrival of the “car-restricted era” is inevitable, and the collection of “congestion fees” has generally been regarded as the most effective way to win the maximum recognition. Once the measures are implemented, it will undoubtedly cause a severe blow to the auto market that is not optimistic at the moment. The industry is worried that whether the introduction of “congestion fees” will accelerate the decline of the auto market and become the “last straw” overtaking camels?

The auto market will surely be suppressed by the accident in 2011. The industry originally expected to recover this year. However, the latest data shows that the situation is not optimistic.

Judging from the accumulated data in the first two months of this year, China’s auto market has experienced negative year-on-year negative growth over the years. In January-February, automobile production and sales reached 2,903,500 vehicles and 2,953,300 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 4.93% and 5.96%.

Experts from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers believe that although the production and sales of automobiles only in January and February, it is difficult to analyze the market trend throughout the year, but this rare decline is still worthy of vigilance.

Once major cities collect “congestion fees”, they will cause a sharp increase in the cost of car users, which will further dampen their enthusiasm for buying cars. Prior to this, rising oil prices in China, and major cities have increased parking fees in the central city, and other initiatives have caused many consumers to postpone the purchase plan. The cost increase caused by "congestion fees" will far exceed such measures, and its impact on the auto market will surely be even greater.

On the other hand, the guiding significance of collecting "congestion fees" is worth paying attention to. In 2009, when the government first encouraged the purchase of cars, consumers broke out with passion that far exceeded the expectations of the outside world and promoted China’s auto market to quickly reach the world's largest scale. Today, three years later, if the “congestion fee” is introduced, it will be greatly suppressed. People's car enthusiasm.

The self-brand pressure “traffic congestion fees” as a kind of taxes and fees, causing the cost of vehicles to rise sharply, and those “price-sensitive” owners with limited economic ability will suffer the brunt. Specifically, it is the mid-to-low-end model, while the self-owned brand is mainly based on the low-end market, and will be the biggest impact.

"Expropriation of 'congestion fees' will surely dampen auto sales across the country. I personally think that the prospects for difficultly self-owned brand vehicles in the first-line market may be even more sluggish. The national auto market may also continue to decline." China Automobile Dealers Association visible market Club leader Su Hui said.

Taking Beijing Restriction as an example, six months after the implementation of the restriction policy in Beijing, Chery, BYD, and Great Wall and other independent brand dealers are facing severe tests, and many dealerships have been severely withdrawn from the market. However, compared with the German brand and high-end imports, Cars, etc. have risen against the market. Another statistic shows that sales of self-owned brand cars in Beijing dropped by 70% year-on-year in 2011. Restricted purchase orders have the greatest impact, while luxury brand cars have suffered little impact.

For a long time, the share of self-owned brands in big cities has been low. Once the “congestion fees” are collected, they will inevitably accelerate their departure and directly lose large markets.

A person in charge of a self-owned brand in South China revealed that they have taken into account the possible restrictions on autos in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and they intend to control the number of networks and differentiate their layout. In 2011, the market share of self-owned branded passenger vehicles decreased by 3.37 percentage points from the same period of last year. Affected by this, independent brands including BYD and JAC have begun to scale back their networks.

Manufacturers Accelerate the Layout of Second and Third Tier Markets Many people originally believed that cities like Guangzhou, which use automobiles as the pillar industries of the economy, are unlikely to adopt “limited car” measures, but in fact they do not think so. During the two sessions of the National People's Congress and general manager Zeng Qinghong of the Guangzhou Automobile Group, Zeng Qinghong stated publicly that Guangzhou and Shenzhen would purchase goods sooner or later.

Prior to the formal purchase restriction, some enterprises represented by Guangzhou Automobile have started to lay out in advance, specifically speeding up the layout in the second, third and even third and fourth tier markets. Take Guangqi Honda as an example, it is mainly through the establishment of secondary outlets from the existing 4S stores to the counties and cities under its jurisdiction. This type of outlet adopts the 2S model. From 2009 onwards, Gwangben has developed second-tier stores targeting 20-30 homes each year.

For automakers, the advancement to the second and third-tier markets was mainly affected by the demand shift. The scale of first-tier cities tends to be saturated, while the second-tier and third-tier markets still have great potential. In the future, this transfer will likely become a strategic demand. Many companies have already planned a large amount of production capacity. If major cities have restricted their licenses, their sales will inevitably drop sharply; and these production capacity must find a way out and they will have to accelerate their foothold in the second, third and fourth tier markets.

Prior to the implementation of the shake number restriction in Beijing, many companies have liberalized the surrounding markets, giving dealers new room for expansion and receiving good results. But another problem is that with the rapid growth of automobiles in second- and third-tier cities, the traffic jam situation in China is spreading from the front line to the second and third line, and the accommodation space in these cities is not unlimited.

How to collect traffic congestion fees abroad?

Congestion charging refers to the extra charge imposed on vehicles driving in peak hours on congested (congested) roads. The price mechanism is used to adjust the distribution of vehicles in the space and time of the urban road network so as to reduce road network congestion ( The purpose of crowding). It is essentially an economic means of traffic demand management. The purpose is to use the price mechanism to limit the traffic density at the peak of urban roads, so as to alleviate the traffic congestion in the city and improve the operational efficiency of the entire city traffic.

First, Singapore car owners do not need to pay fees at all times, except for the peak time zone between 7:30-10:00 am and 12:00-2:00 pm, the other time systems will be automatically closed. In order to guide the vehicle to travel as far as possible in the peak interval, the highway electronic toll collection system ERP also adjusts the congestion charging standard according to different time periods. From 8:30 to 9:00 in the morning, vehicles enter the central business district for the most time. Therefore, the highest charge is for a car to pay S$3; while for cars with low traffic, it is between 12:00 and 12:30, each time. Just pay 0.5 yuan.

2. London, February 17, 2003 London imposes traffic congestion fees on vehicles entering and leaving the downtown area within a fixed period of time and within a defined charge. The initial toll area covers an area of ​​22 square kilometers, from Monday to Friday 7:00-18:00 (7:00-18:30 before February 19, 2007), weekends, public holidays and Christmas to New Year's three Except workdays. The amount of the charge was 5 pounds per car per day before July 2005, and increased to 8 pounds per car per day after July 2005. If you pay in advance by week, month, or year, you can get a discount of up to 15%.

3. From August 1, 2007 in Stockholm, Stockholm, congestion fees for drivers entering the city center during the day will be charged. The specific amount will be charged according to different time periods.

Charges are from 6:30 am to 6:30 pm. Cars entering or leaving the city are subject to a congestion charge ranging from SEK 10 to SEK 20/hour, and are based on rush hour conditions, either in ascending or descending manner, ie from 7:00 to 9:00 in the highest standard period: 20 Swedish per hour The Krone, afterwards gradually declining, charges basically 10 kroons per hour or 15 kroons; starting at 3:30 pm, it pays 5 kroons per hour, and from 17:30 to 18:30 returns to the highest standard of 20 kroons. No congestion charge will be charged from 19:30 in the evening to 6:30 in the next day.

Fourth, New York To improve traffic congestion in New York City, New York City Mayor Bloomberg proposed to imitate London, England in April 2008 and enter the south of Manhattan’s 86th Street, New York, between 6am and 6pm on weekdays. The car receives an "advanced city fare" of 8 dollars and the truck needs to pay 21 dollars. However, random sample surveys show that New Yorkers are not enthusiastic about this project. 61% of residents in New York City and its surrounding suburbs opposed Bloomberg's program; Manhattan District residents have a similar proportion of 48% and 46%. The policy eventually ran aground.