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Yang Xianfeng analyzed the main reasons for the slightly loose coal supply and demand:
I. Affected by the macroeconomic adjustment, the growth rate of coal-fired key industries will decline. The increase in the amount of thermal power generation will fall back to about 12%, the production of pig iron will fall back to about 9%, and cement production will fall back to about 11%. In addition, the effect of energy-saving and emission-reduction policies will be further strengthened this year. With the optimization of the technological structure of the coal-consuming industries, the decline in coal consumption indicators will increase. It is predicted that the increase in coal demand in 2008 will fall within the range of 6% to 8%, and the demand will reach 2.74 billion to 2.82 billion tons.
2. In 2008, China’s annual coal output was approximately 2.87 billion tons, which was “relatively excess†relative to the demand ceiling of 2.83 billion tons. In addition, the growth in the production capacity of the 16 major coking coal producers is limited; this year, the newly added coal capacity of the national railways is only 60 million tons, which is a significant drop from the growth rate in 2007, resulting in a significant decline in the growth rate of effective coal production; therefore, coal supply in 2008 Will remain basically stable.
3. The capacity of railway transportation from major coal-producing regions in China will increase by about 300 million tons from 2009 to 2010, and the increase in effective coal production capacity will increase significantly. However, as the policy of controlling the export of "two high and one capital" products has increased, the investment in heavy chemical industry has dropped and the coal consumption index will further decline. Therefore, the growth rate of coal demand will drop by about 3.5%, which is in contrast with the increase in the effective supply capacity of coal. The coal market may face excess pressure.
Yang Xianfeng proposed to establish a coal emergency reserve system, including national reserves and corporate reserves, especially large transit ports and key enterprises to establish coal emergency reserves to improve coal emergency supply support capabilities. At the same time, the development of large-scale coal enterprise groups will increase the state's control over coal supply. In addition, the establishment of a national coal trading center, through an open, fair and just coal trading, to guide the market to form a reasonable expectation to reduce market supply and demand fluctuations and prices soared.
Demand declines in coal production or surplus next year
Recently, Yang Xianfeng, secretary-general of the China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association, stated that coal demand began to transition from rapid growth to steady growth in 2008. Although China's coal production capacity has grown by a large margin, due to lack of capacity, the effective capacity growth has dropped significantly. With the increase of China's coal transportation capacity in 2009, there is a greater possibility that coal supply and demand will be slightly loose.