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For the nitrogen fertilizer industry, from January to October 2006, total nitrogenous nitrogen production was 100% 31,676,400 tons, up 11.5% year-on-year, of which urea (100% nitrogen) output was 18.226 million tons, an increase of 13.1% year-on-year. The production and sales ratio was close to 99%. % In the first half of the year, urea continued its trend in 2005, prices continued to rise, and the ex-factory prices were mostly close to the national maximum price of nitrogen fertilizers, but prices fell sharply in the second half of the year as sales slowed. Due to factors such as natural gas and electricity price increase this year, the industry profit growth is limited. From January to October 2006, when the sales revenue of nitrogen fertilizer industry increased by 14.16% year-on-year, profits dropped by 6.68%.
At the same time, as the new urea plant is put into operation in the near future, by the end of 2006, the urea production capacity is expected to exceed 23 million tons, and the overcapacity pressure will be greater. In addition, the country has also tightened its export restrictions on high energy-consuming nitrogen fertilizers. In 2006, the urea export tariff was 30% from January to September and 15% from October to December. It is expected that this export restriction policy will be maintained in 2007. The liberalization of the distribution market and the marketization of future fertilizer pricing will also further intensify competition in the industry. The international market is also more severe. According to the estimates of the World Fertilizer Industry Association, the 90% operating rate is estimated to have a slight surplus in the global urea market in 2006 and 2007. By 2008, there will be a large excess of 7 million tons, and then The surplus accelerated, with an excess of 20 million tons in 2010.
In the region, the newly added urea capacity from 2006 to 2010 mainly comes from West Asia and China, accounting for about 3/4 of the total capacity increase. Future urea competition in the international market will be mainly reflected in the international surplus between China and West Asia. The market will further increase the intensity of urea competition. Therefore, although there are some positive factors such as the country’s vigorous efforts to build a new countryside, stabilize food production, thereby favorably expanding the demand for urea, increase farmers’ income, increase purchasing power, and increase industrial urea consumption, we believe that the overall operating situation of the nitrogen fertilizer industry cannot be tolerated in the future. Optimistic, under the pressure of cost, the possibility of urea prices continuing to fall sharply in 2007 is unlikely, but profitability will decline as costs increase and competition intensifies.
With the intensification of competition, the urea industry is facing an opportunity for consolidation. Those leading companies with significant scale and cost advantages will benefit from the integration. Since the urea industry has lower barriers to entry, the cost factor is more important. Under high oil prices, the competitiveness of oil-headed urea enterprises is the weakest. The domestic gas-headed urea enterprises have also reduced their competitive advantage under the general trend of rising natural gas prices. We look forward to those coal companies that have implemented advanced coal gasification technologies to drastically reduce costs, such as Hualu Hengsheng and Liuhua.
China Chemical Network finishing
From January to October 2006, China produced a total of 978.22 million tons of phosphate fertilizer. At present, China's phosphate fertilizer output and consumption ranks first in the world. Phosphorus fertilizer consumption is basically free from dependence on imports. Product structure has been greatly improved, and the proportion of high-level phosphate fertilizer has been achieved. 60%, but since 2004, the growth rate of investment in China's phosphate fertilizer industry has further accelerated, and the development rate has greatly exceeded 20%. A large number of large-scale large-scale high-concentration phosphate fertilizer production equipments have been put into operation successively in 2007 and 2007. Overcapacity in 2007 is inevitable. Increased competitive pressures. At the same time, due to the lack of high-grade phosphate rock in China, the continued increase in the price of phosphate rock will also affect the profitability of the phosphate fertilizer industry. Therefore, the impact of the phosphate fertilizer industry in 2007 increased. Relatively speaking, we are optimistic about listed companies that have phosphorite resources, such as Hubei Yihua and Six Nations Chemicals.
From January to October 2006, China produced a total of 1.2902 million tons of potash (potassium oxide), which was a year-on-year increase of 14.4%. The profit increased by 52.67% over the same period of last year, and the momentum of rapid development remained high. The potash self-supply capacity in China is poor and the demand gap is very large. The import volume accounts for about two-thirds of the total demand. Many potash fertilizer manufacturers are often in an overloaded production state. Due to the serious shortage of potassium in China's soil, domestic new production capacity Limited, in the next few years, domestic potash fertilizer will still be in a situation where demand exceeds supply. Potash fertilizer prices have been rising in recent years, and the price of potash fertilizers has remained at a high level in 2006. Due to the high concentration of international potash fertilizer production, the overseas potash fertilizer giant has recently increased the price of potash fertilizer. It is expected that the domestic potash fertilizer sales price will still rise slightly in 2007, and related potash fertilizer leaders such as Salt Lake Potash and Guannong will further benefit.
Fertilizer industry: Potash growth is strong and long-term growth is promising
From January to October 2006, China produced 43.38 million tons of chemical fertilizers, an increase of 12.4% over the same period of 2005.